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| | | | F-1 | | | |
| | | | A-1 | | | |
| | | | B-1 | | |
| AeroCentury Corp. 1440 Chapin Avenue, Suite 310 Burlingame, California 94010 |
| | JetFleet Holding Corp. 1440 Chapin Avenue, Suite 310 Burlingame, California 94010 |
|
| Falcon Landing, Inc. 1440 Chapin Avenue, Suite 310 Burlingame, California 94010 |
| | Fortis Advisors LLC* 12526 High Bluff Drive, #280 San Diego, California 92130 |
|
| | |
Fiscal Years ended December 31
(dollars in thousands) |
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
($ in thousands)
|
| |
2018
|
| |
2019
|
| |
2020
|
| |
2021
|
| |
2022
|
| |||||||||||||||
Total Revenue
|
| | | $ | 33,438 | | | | | $ | 36,115 | | | | | $ | 37,860 | | | | | $ | 37,106 | | | | | $ | 38,691 | | |
EBITDA(1) | | | | $ | 24,837 | | | | | $ | 27,368 | | | | | $ | 28,805 | | | | | $ | 27,829 | | | | | $ | 29,143 | | |
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 1,516 | | | | | $ | 2,941 | | | | | $ | 3,542 | | | | | $ | 3,727 | | | | | $ | 4,438 | | |
Levered Free Cash Flow(2)
|
| | | $ | (752) | | | | | $ | 472 | | | | | $ | 435 | | | | | $ | 303 | | | | | $ | 57 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Years ended December 31
(dollars in thousands) |
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
($ in thousands)
|
| |
2018
|
| |
2019
|
| |
2020
|
| |
2021
|
| |
2022
|
| |
2023
|
| |
2024
|
| |
2025
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total Revenue
|
| | | $ | 7,288 | | | | | $ | 7,553 | | | | | $ | 7,992 | | | | | $ | 8,433 | | | | | $ | 8,419 | | | | | $ | 8,672 | | | | | $ | 8,932 | | | | | $ | 6,517 | | |
EBITDA(1) | | | | $ | 1,975 | | | | | $ | 2,036 | | | | | $ | 2,261 | | | | | $ | 2,464 | | | | | $ | 2,202 | | | | | $ | 2,207 | | | | | $ | 2,208 | | | | | $ | 1,562 | | |
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 1,182 | | | | | $ | 1,218 | | | | | $ | 1,353 | | | | | $ | 1,473 | | | | | $ | 1,316 | | | | | $ | 1,318 | | | | | $ | 1,318 | | | | | $ | 932 | | |
Free Cash Flow(2)
|
| | | $ | 1,177 | | | | | $ | 1,214 | | | | | $ | 1,349 | | | | | $ | 1,470 | | | | | $ | 1,313 | | | | | $ | 1,316 | | | | | $ | 1,316 | | | | | $ | 931 | | |
| | |
ACY Historical & Projected Financial Performance
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
($ in thousands)
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
For the Years Ended December 31
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
Actual
|
| |
Estimate
|
| |
ACY Projections
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
2013
|
| |
2014
|
| |
2015
|
| |
2016
|
| |
LTM
|
| |
2017
|
| |
2018
|
| |
2019
|
| |
2020
|
| |
2021
|
| |
2022
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Operating Leases
|
| | | $ | 18,794 | | | | | $ | 21,913 | | | | | $ | 25,467 | | | | | $ | 24,464 | | | | | $ | 29,551 | | | | | $ | 29,081 | | | | | $ | 30,267 | | | | | $ | 34,660 | | | | | $ | 36,818 | | | | | $ | 36,470 | | | | | $ | 38,539 | | |
Op. Leases as a % of Average NBV
|
| | | | 12.7% | | | | | | 12.9% | | | | | | 14.9% | | | | | | 14.1% | | | | | | 15.2% | | | | | | 15.2% | | | | | | 15.2% | | | | | | 15.8% | | | | | | 15.8% | | | | | | 15.0% | | | | | | 15.0% | | |
Maintenance Reserves(1)
|
| | | $ | 14,910 | | | | | $ | 3,394 | | | | | $ | 589 | | | | | $ | 0 | | | | | $ | 1,014 | | | | | $ | 3,366 | | | | | $ | 0 | | | | | $ | 0 | | | | | $ | 0 | | | | | $ | 0 | | | | | $ | 0 | | |
Net Gain in Disposal
of Assets |
| | | | 3,808 | | | | | | 3,147 | | | | | | 6,791 | | | | | | 2,195 | | | | | | 167 | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 0 | | |
Net Gain on
Sale-Type Finance Leases |
| | | | 0 | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 5,179 | | | | | | 1,187 | | | | | | 1,725 | | | | | | 167 | | | | | | 1,287 | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 0 | | |
Finance Leases
|
| | | | 719 | | | | | | 252 | | | | | | 508 | | | | | | 870 | | | | | | 870 | | | | | | 1,597 | | | | | | 1,884 | | | | | | 1,456 | | | | | | 1,042 | | | | | | 637 | | | | | | 152 | | |
Total Revenue
|
| | | $ | 38,232 | | | | | $ | 28,707 | | | | | $ | 38,534 | | | | | $ | 28,716 | | | | | $ | 33,328 | | | | | $ | 34,211 | | | | | $ | 33,438 | | | | | $ | 36,115 | | | | | $ | 37,860 | | | | | $ | 37,106 | | | | | $ | 38,691 | | |
Growth
|
| | | | | | | | | | (24.9)% | | | | | | 34.2% | | | | | | (25.5)% | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 19.1% | | | | | | (2.3)% | | | | | | 8.0% | | | | | | 4.8% | | | | | | (2.0)% | | | | | | 4.3% | | |
Total Fees to JHC(2)
|
| | | $ | (5,746) | | | | | $ | (6,063) | | | | | $ | (6,466) | | | | | $ | (6,888) | | | | | $ | (8,225) | | | | | $ | (6,953) | | | | | $ | (7,288) | | | | | $ | (7,553) | | | | | $ | (7,992) | | | | | $ | (8,433) | | | | | $ | (8,419) | | |
Growth
|
| | | | NA | | | | | | 5.5% | | | | | | 6.6% | | | | | | 6.5% | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 1.0% | | | | | | 4.8% | | | | | | 3.6% | | | | | | 5.8% | | | | | | 5.5% | | | | | | (0.2)% | | |
Total Operating
Expenses |
| | | $ | (25,559) | | | | | $ | (45,952) | | | | | $ | (28,512) | | | | | $ | (26,744) | | | | | $ | (30,595) | | | | | $ | (30,119) | | | | | $ | (31,921) | | | | | $ | (33,174) | | | | | $ | (34,317) | | | | | $ | (33,380) | | | | | $ | (34,253) | | |
Growth
|
| | | | NA | | | | | | 79.8% | | | | | | (38.0)% | | | | | | (6.2)% | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 12.6% | | | | | | 6.0% | | | | | | 3.9% | | | | | | 3.4% | | | | | | (2.7)% | | | | | | 2.6% | | |
Adjusted EBITDA
|
| | | $ | 24,469 | | | | | $ | 13,924 | | | | | $ | 26,507 | | | | | $ | 18,514 | | | | | $ | 23,582 | | | | | $ | 24,653 | | | | | $ | 24,837 | | | | | $ | 27,368 | | | | | $ | 28,805 | | | | | $ | 27,829 | | | | | $ | 29,143 | | |
Margin
|
| | | | 64.0% | | | | | | 48.5% | | | | | | 68.8% | | | | | | 64.5% | | | | | | 70.8% | | | | | | 72.1% | | | | | | 74.3% | | | | | | 75.8% | | | | | | 76.1% | | | | | | 75.0% | | | | | | 75.3% | | |
Growth
|
| | | | NA | | | | | | NM | | | | | | NM | | | | | | (30.2)% | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 33.2% | | | | | | 0.7% | | | | | | 10.2% | | | | | | 5.3% | | | | | | (3.4)% | | | | | | 4.7% | | |
Adjusted Net Income
|
| | | $ | 8,702 | | | | | $ | 7,443 | | | | | $ | 7,720 | | | | | $ | 3,284 | | | | | $ | 3,629 | | | | | $ | 4,803 | | | | | $ | 1,516 | | | | | $ | 2,941 | | | | | $ | 3,542 | | | | | $ | 3,727 | | | | | $ | 4,438 | | |
Margin
|
| | | | 22.8% | | | | | | 25.9% | | | | | | 20.0% | | | | | | 11.4% | | | | | | 10.9% | | | | | | 14.0% | | | | | | 4.5% | | | | | | 8.1% | | | | | | 9.4% | | | | | | 10.0% | | | | | | 11.5% | | |
Growth
|
| | | | NA | | | | | | (14.5)% | | | | | | 3.7% | | | | | | (57.5)% | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 46.2% | | | | | | (68.4)% | | | | | | 94.0% | | | | | | 20.4% | | | | | | 5.2% | | | | | | 19.1% | | |
| | |
ACY Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
($ in thousands)
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
For the Years Ended December 31
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
Estimate
|
| | |
ACY Projections
|
| |
5-YR
CAGR |
| |
5-YR
Average |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
2017E
|
| | |
2018P
|
| |
2019P
|
| |
2020P
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Revenue
|
| | | $ | 34,211 | | | | | | $ | 33,438 | | | | | $ | 36,115 | | | | | $ | 37,860 | | | | | $ | 37,106 | | | | | $ | 38,691 | | | | | | 3.7% | | | | | | | | |
Growth
|
| | |
|
19.1%
|
| | | | |
|
(2.3)%
|
| | | |
|
8.0%
|
| | | |
|
4.8%
|
| | | |
|
(2.0)%
|
| | | |
|
4.3%
|
| | | | | | | | | | | 2.6% | | |
EBITDA
|
| | | $ | 23,943 | | | | | | $ | 24,837 | | | | | $ | 27,368 | | | | | $ | 28,805 | | | | | $ | 27,829 | | | | | $ | 29,143 | | | | | | 4.1% | | | | | | | | |
EBITDA Margin
|
| | | | 70.0% | | | | | | | 74.3% | | | | | | 75.8% | | | | | | 76.1% | | | | | | 75.0% | | | | | | 75.3% | | | | | | | | | | |
|
75.3%
|
| |
| | |
2018P
|
| |
2019P
|
| |
2020P
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |||||||||||||||
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 1,516 | | | | | $ | 2,941 | | | | | $ | 3,542 | | | | | $ | 3,727 | | | | | $ | 4,438 | | |
Plus: Depreciation
|
| | | | 13,907 | | | | | | 15,176 | | | | | | 15,905 | | | | | | 14,889 | | | | | | 15,722 | | |
Plus: Cash Sales Proceeds
|
| | | | 5,702 | | | | | | 6,955 | | | | | | 22,111 | | | | | | 21,284 | | | | | | 7,578 | | |
Less: Debt Repayments
|
| | | | (12,801) | | | | | | (24,498) | | | | | | (38,713) | | | | | | (35,500) | | | | | | (25,000) | | |
Plus: Debt Borrowings
|
| | | | 23,150 | | | | | | 34,050 | | | | | | 34,770 | | | | | | 35,350 | | | | | | 25,160 | | |
Less: Capital Expenditures
|
| | | | (38,000) | | | | | | (39,000) | | | | | | (42,000) | | | | | | (45,000) | | | | | | (34,000) | | |
Plus: Finance Lease Principal Payments
|
| | | | 5,278 | | | | | | 7,102 | | | | | | 5,465 | | | | | | 6,214 | | | | | | 6,664 | | |
Plus: Other Cash Flow Adjustments
|
| | | | 495 | | | | | | (2,254) | | | | | | (645) | | | | | | (661) | | | | | | (505) | | |
Levered Free Cash Flow
|
| | | $ | (752) | | | | | $ | 472 | | | | | $ | 435 | | | | | $ | 303 | | | | | $ | 57 | | |
Equity Value
|
| |
Low
|
| |
Mid
|
| |
High
|
| |||||||||
Price to Book Value (“P/BV”) Multiple(1)
|
| | | | 0.95x | | | | | | 1.00x | | | | | | 1.05x | | |
Cost of Equity
|
| | | | 15.50% | | | | | | 15.00% | | | | | | 14.50% | | |
Present Value of Terminal Value
|
| | | $ | 24,543 | | | | | $ | 26,401 | | | | | $ | 28,332 | | |
PV of Discrete Cash Flow – Annual
|
| | | | 198 | | | | | | 205 | | | | | | 213 | | |
Indicated Equity Value Range
|
| | | $ | 24,700 | | | | | $ | 26,600 | | | | | $ | 28,500 | | |
|
| | |
Implied Multiples
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
Book Value of Equity
|
| | | $ | 41,461 | | | | | | 0.60x | | | | | | 0.64x | | | | | | 0.69x | | |
LTM Net Income
|
| | | | 3,629 | | | | | | 6.8x | | | | | | 7.3x | | | | | | 7.9x | | |
2017 Net Income
|
| | | | 4,803 | | | | | | 5.1x | | | | | | 5.5x | | | | | | 5.9x | | |
2018 Net Income
|
| | | | 1,516 | | | | | | 16.3x | | | | | | 17.5x | | | | | | 18.8x | | |
LTM Revenue(2)
|
| | | | 33,328 | | | | | | 5.24x | | | | | | 5.29x | | | | | | 5.35x | | |
2017 Revenue(2)
|
| | | | 34,211 | | | | | | 5.10x | | | | | | 5.16x | | | | | | 5.21x | | |
LTM Adj. EBITDA(2)
|
| | | | 23,582 | | | | | | 7.4x | | | | | | 7.5x | | | | | | 7.6x | | |
2017 Adj. EBITDA(2)
|
| | | | 24,653 | | | | | | 7.1x | | | | | | 7.2x | | | | | | 7.2x | | |
|
•
ALAFCO Aviation Lease and Finance
•
Avation PLC
•
DP Aircraft I Limited
•
AerCap Holdings N.V.
|
| |
•
Air Lease Corporation
•
FLY Leasing Limited
•
Willis Lease Finance Corporation
•
Aircastle Limited
|
|
| | |
Selected Public Companies Analysis
|
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COMPANY INFORMATION
|
| |
REVENUE GROWTH
|
| |
LTM RETURNS
|
| |
EBITDA MARGIN
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Company Name
|
| |
3-YR
CAGR |
| |
LTM
|
| |
2017
|
| |
2018
|
| |
ROA
|
| |
ROE
|
| |
EBT to
Equity |
| |
3-YR
AVG |
| |
LTM
|
| |
2017
|
| |
2018
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ALAFCO Aviation Lease
and Finance |
| | | | 6.0% | | | | | | 22.7% | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 4.3% | | | | | | 9.0% | | | | | | 9.0% | | | | | | 90.7% | | | | | | 92.8% | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | |
Avation PLC
|
| | | | 24.7 | | | | | | 32.7 | | | | | | 15.1 | | | | | | 10.7 | | | | | | 7.3 | | | | | | 14.2 | | | | | | 14.2 | | | | | | 93.0 | | | | | | 103.1 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | |
DP Aircraft I Limited
|
| | | | NM | | | | | | 0.1 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 6.0 | | | | | | 9.0 | | | | | | 9.0 | | | | | | 92.8 | | | | | | 96.5 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | |
AerCap Holdings N.V.
|
| | | | 67.5 | | | | | | -3.8 | | | | | | -2.1 | | | | | | 2.9 | | | | | | 4.4 | | | | | | 11.5 | | | | | | 13.7 | | | | | | 60.9 | | | | | | 81.3 | | | | | | 81.3 | | | | | | 84.6 | | |
Air Lease Corporation
|
| | | | 16.9 | | | | | | 7.2 | | | | | | 9.5 | | | | | | 15.8 | | | | | | 3.8 | | | | | | 9.7 | | | | | | 15.9 | | | | | | 70.4 | | | | | | 92.3 | | | | | | 92.7 | | | | | | 93.2 | | |
FLY Leasing Limited
|
| | | | -1.4 | | | | | | -12.9 | | | | | | 0.2 | | | | | | 13.9 | | | | | | 4.3 | | | | | | 6.8 | | | | | | 5.5 | | | | | | 69.1 | | | | | | 86.8 | | | | | | 89.7 | | | | | | 94.6 | | |
Willis Lease Finance Corporation
|
| | | | 8.7 | | | | | | 16.4 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 4.8 | | | | | | 10.3 | | | | | | 17.6 | | | | | | 65.7 | | | | | | 70.8 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | |
Aircastle Limited
|
| | | | 4.7 | | | | | | 9.2 | | | | | | 0.2 | | | | | | 4.7 | | | | | | 6.5 | | | | | | 12.5 | | | | | | 13.0 | | | | | | 67.9 | | | | | | 93.1 | | | | | | 95.6 | | | | | | 91.3 | | |
Mean | | | | | 18.1% | | | | | | 9.0% | | | | | | 4.6% | | | | | | 9.6% | | | | | | 5.2% | | | | | | 10.4% | | | | | | 12.2% | | | | | | 76.3% | | | | | | 89.6% | | | | | | 89.8% | | | | | | 90.9% | | |
Median | | | | | 8.7% | | | | | | 8.2% | | | | | | 0.2% | | | | | | 10.7% | | | | | | 4.6% | | | | | | 10.0% | | | | | | 13.3% | | | | | | 69.7% | | | | | | 92.5% | | | | | | 91.2% | | | | | | 92.2% | | |
High | | | | | 67.5% | | | | | | 32.7% | | | | | | 15.1% | | | | | | 15.8% | | | | | | 7.3% | | | | | | 14.2% | | | | | | 17.6% | | | | | | 93.0% | | | | | | 103.1% | | | | | | 95.6% | | | | | | 94.6% | | |
Low | | | | | -1.4% | | | | | | -12.9% | | | | | | -2.1% | | | | | | 2.9% | | | | | | 3.8% | | | | | | 6.8% | | | | | | 5.5% | | | | | | 60.9% | | | | | | 70.8% | | | | | | 81.3% | | | | | | 84.6% | | |
ACY(1) | | | | | -9.1% | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 19.1% | | | | | | -2.3% | | | | | | 1.8% | | | | | | 8.7% | | | | | | 6.6% | | | | | | 35.3% | | | | | | 70.8% | | | | | | 72.1% | | | | | | 74.3% | | |
ACY & JHC(1)
|
| | | | -9.1% | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 19.1% | | | | | | -2.3% | | | | | | 3.3% | | | | | | 15.6% | | | | | | 14.9% | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 81.1% | | | | | | 77.0% | | | | | | 80.3% | | |
|
| | |
Selected Public Companies Analysis
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
(US$ in millions, except per share data)
|
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
COMPANY
INFORMATION |
| |
MARKET DATA
|
| |
EQUITY VALUE AS A MULITPLE OF
|
| |
ENTERPRISE VALUE AS A MULITPLE OF
|
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Company Name
|
| |
Common
Stock Price on 10/20/2017 |
| |
% of
52-Week High |
| |
Market
Capitalization |
| |
Enterprise
Value |
| |
Book
Value of Equity |
| |
Tangible
Book Value of Equity |
| |
LTM
Net Income |
| |
2017
Net Income |
| |
2018
Net Income |
| |
LTM
EBITDA |
| |
2017
EBITDA |
| |
2018
EBITDA |
| |
LTM
Revenue |
| |
2017
Revenue |
| |
2018
Revenue |
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ALAFCO Aviation Lease and Finance
|
| | | $ | 1.28 | | | | | | 99.2% | | | | | $ | 1,218 | | | | | $ | 2,690 | | | | | | 1.36x | | | | | | 1.36x | | | | | | 15.6x | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 10.8x | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 10.01x | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | ||
Avation PLC
|
| | | | 3.02 | | | | | | 93.5 | | | | | | 186 | | | | | | 745 | | | | | | 0.92 | | | | | | 0.93 | | | | | | 8.5 | | | | | | 10.9 | | | | | | 10.8x | | | | | | 7.6 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 7.88 | | | | | | 7.60 | | | | | | 6.87 | | | | ||
DP Aircraft I Limited
|
| | | | 1.11 | | | | | | 98.9 | | | | | | 232 | | | | | | 478 | | | | | | 1.11 | | | | | | 1.36 | | | | | | 12.6 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 8.6 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 8.34 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | ||
AerCap Holdings N.V.
|
| | | | 53.06 | | | | | | 100.4 | | | | | | 8,671 | | | | | | 34,290 | | | | | | 1.11 | | | | | | 1.55 | | | | | | 9.8 | | | | | | 8.7 | | | | | | 7.9 | | | | | | 8.6 | | | | | | 8.5x | | | | | | 8.0x | | | | | | 6.97 | | | | | | 6.95 | | | | | | 6.75 | | | | ||
Air Lease Corporation
|
| | | | 44.14 | | | | | | 98.6 | | | | | | 4,556 | | | | | | 13,667 | | | | | | 1.38 | | | | | | 1.38 | | | | | | 15.0 | | | | | | 12.7 | | | | | | 10.6 | | | | | | 10.6 | | | | | | 9.8 | | | | | | 8.4 | | | | | | 9.82 | | | | | | 9.11 | | | | | | 7.87 | | | | ||
FLY Leasing Limited
|
| | | | 14.03 | | | | | | 95.8 | | | | | | 423 | | | | | | 2,670 | | | | | | 0.78 | | | | | | 0.96 | | | | | | 11.0 | | | | | | 14.7 | | | | | | 7.0 | | | | | | 9.0 | | | | | | 8.7 | | | | | | 7.2 | | | | | | 7.80 | | | | | | 7.77 | | | | | | 6.83 | | | | ||
Willis Lease Finance
Corporation |
| | | | 25.25 | | | | | | 90.0 | | | | | | 162 | | | | | | 1,047 | | | | | | 0.76 | | | | | | 0.83 | | | | | | 8.0 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 6.0 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 4.22 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | ||
Aircastle Limited
|
| | | | 23.56 | | | | | | 90.7 | | | | | | 1,854 | | | | | | 5,634 | | | | | | 1.00 | | | | | | 1.00 | | | | | | 8.1 | | | | | | 12.3 | | | | | | 10.1 | | | | | | 7.1 | | | | | | 7.3 | | | | | | 7.3 | | | | | | 6.60 | | | | | | 7.02 | | | | | | 6.70 | | | | ||
Mean | | | | | | | | | | | 95.9% | | | | | $ | 2,163 | | | | | $ | 7,652 | | | | | | 1.05x | | | | | | 1.17x | | | | | | 11.1x | | | | | | 11.9x | | | | | | 9.3x | | | | | | 8.5x | | | | | | 8.6x | | | | | | 7.7x | | | | | | 7.70x | | | | | | 7.69x | | | | | | 7.00x | | | | ||
Median | | | | | | | | | | | 97.2% | | | | | $ | 821 | | | | | $ | 2,680 | | | | | | 1.06x | | | | | | 1.18x | | | | | | 10.4x | | | | | | 12.3x | | | | | | 10.1x | | | | | | 8.6x | | | | | | 8.6x | | | | | | 7.7x | | | | | | 7.84x | | | | | | 7.60x | | | | | | 6.83x | | | | ||
High | | | | | | | | | | | 100.4% | | | | | $ | 8,671 | | | | | $ | 34,290 | | | | | | 1.38x | | | | | | 1.55x | | | | | | 15.6x | | | | | | 14.7x | | | | | | 10.8x | | | | | | 10.8x | | | | | | 9.8x | | | | | | 8.4x | | | | | | 10.01x | | | | | | 9.11x | | | | | | 7.87x | | | | ||
Low | | | | | | | | | | | 90.0% | | | | | $ | 162 | | | | | $ | 478 | | | | | | 0.76x | | | | | | 0.83x | | | | | | 8.0x | | | | | | 8.7x | | | | | | 7.0x | | | | | | 6.0x | | | | | | 7.3x | | | | | | 7.2x | | | | | | 4.22x | | | | | | 6.95x | | | | | | 6.70x | | | | ||
Aerocentury Corp. (1)(2)
|
| | | $ | 13.55 | | | | | | 84.2% | | | | | $ | 19 | | | | | $ | 162 | | | | | | 0.46x | | | | | | 0.46x | | | | | | 5.3x | | | | | | 4.0x | | | | | | 12.7x | | | | | | 7.2x | | | | | | 6.9x | | | | | | 6.8x | | | | | | 5.07x | | | | | | 4.94x | | | | | | 5.06x | | | | ||
|
| | |
Selected M&A Transaction Analysis
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
($ in millions)
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Announced
|
| |
Target Name
|
| |
Target Business Description
|
| |
Acquirer Name
|
| |
Enterprise
Value |
| |
LTM
Revenue |
| |
LTM
EBITDA |
| |
EBITDA
Margin |
| |
EV/
Revenue |
| |
EV/
EBITDA |
| |
Price/
Book Value |
| |||||||||||||||||||||
12/11/2016 | | | Deao Import & Export Co., Ltd. |
| | Deao Import & Export Co., Ltd. engages in trading of aircraft, engines, and other related parts. | | | Zhuhai Jinyu Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. | | | | $ | 6.5 | | | | | $ | 0.2 | | | | | | NM | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NM | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | |
12/02/2016 | | | CK Capital Limited | | | CK Capital Limited is an investment holding company, which through its subsidiaries, owns and leases aircraft. |
| | Accipiter Investments Limited | | | | $ | 973.0 | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NM | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 0.70x | | |
10/06/2016 | | | C2 Aviation Capital, Inc. | | | C2 Aviation Capital, Inc., an aircraft leasing company, focuses on acquiring, leasing, and managing commercial aircraft in the United States and internationally. |
| | Avolon Holdings Limited |
| | | $ | 13,355.5 | | | | | $ | 1,234.3 | | | | | $ | 619.4 | | | | | | 50.2% | | | | | | 10.82x | | | | | | 21.6x | | | | | | 1.40x | | |
07/14/2015 | | | Avolon Holdings Limited |
| | Avolon Holdings Limited acquires, manages, leases, and sells commercial jet aircraft to various airlines and lessees in the United States and internationally. |
| | Global Aviation Leasing Co., Ltd. |
| | | $ | 7,504.7 | | | | | $ | 696.6 | | | | | $ | 628.2 | | | | | | 90.2% | | | | | | 10.77x | | | | | | 11.9x | | | | | | 1.70x | | |
9/22/2014 | | | Capital Lease Aviation Plc (nka:Capital Lease Aviation Limited) | | | Capital Lease Aviation Limited owns and leases a portfolio of commercial jet aircrafts to regional and international airlines in Singapore. | | | Avation PLC | | | | $ | 76.4 | | | | | $ | 11.7 | | | | | $ | 10.4 | | | | | | 89.2% | | | | | | 6.53x | | | | | | 7.3x | | | | | | 0.80x | | |
12/16/2013 | | | International Lease Finance Corporation | | | AerCap Global Aviation Trust, together with its subsidiaries, acquires, leases, and sells commercial aircraft worldwide. | | | AerCap Ireland Limited | | | | $ | 26,090.6 | | | | | $ | 4,347.1 | | | | | | NM | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 6.00x | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 0.70x | | |
| | | | | | | | | Mean | | | | $ | 8,001.1 | | | | | $ | 1,258.0 | | | | | $ | 419.4 | | | | | | 76.5% | | | | | | 8.53x | | | | | | 13.6x | | | | | | 1.06x | | |
Source: Capital IQ and company filings
|
| | Median | | | | $ | 4,238.9 | | | | | $ | 696.6 | | | | | $ | 619.4 | | | | | | 89.2% | | | | | | 8.65x | | | | | | 11.9x | | | | | | 0.80x | | |
| | |
ACY Orderly Liquidation(1)
|
| |||||||||||||||
| | |
($ in thousands)
|
| |||||||||||||||
| | |
Book Value(2)
|
| |
Adjustment(3)
|
| |
Estimated
Liquidation Value |
| |||||||||
Cash
|
| | | $ | 8,280 | | | | | | 100.0% | | | | | $ | 8,280 | | |
Accounts Receivable
|
| | | | 4,664 | | | | | | 100.0% | | | | | | 4,664 | | |
Finance Leases Receivable
|
| | | | 24,673 | | | | | | 75.0% | | | | | | 18,505 | | |
Aircraft and Aircraft Engines
|
| | | | 206,096 | | | | | | 106.0% | | | | | | 218,385 | | |
Assets Held for Sale
|
| | | | 7,429 | | | | | | 80.0% | | | | | | 5,943 | | |
Prepaid Expenses and Other
|
| | | | 362 | | | | | | 0.0% | | | | | | 0 | | |
Total Assets
|
| | | $ | 251,504 | | | | | | | | | | | $ | 255,777 | | |
Accounts Payable and Accrued
|
| | | $ | 713 | | | | | | 100.0% | | | | | $ | 713 | | |
Note Payable
|
| | | | 158,149 | | | | | | 100.0% | | | | | | 158,149 | | |
Maintenance reserves
|
| | | | 29,700 | | | | | | 100.0% | | | | | | 29,700 | | |
Accrued Maintenance Costs
|
| | | | 363 | | | | | | 100.0% | | | | | | 363 | | |
Security Deposits
|
| | | | 3,968 | | | | | | 100.0% | | | | | | 3,968 | | |
Unearned Revenues
|
| | | | 3,343 | | | | | | 100.0% | | | | | | 3,343 | | |
Deferred Income Taxes
|
| | | | 13,481 | | | | | | 100.0% | | | | | | 13,481 | | |
Taxes Payable
|
| | | | 326 | | | | | | 100.0% | | | | | | 326 | | |
Total Liabilities
|
| | | $ | 210,042 | | | | | | | | | | | $ | 210,042 | | |
Shareholders’ Equity (Net Asset Value)
|
| | | | 41,461 | | | | | | | | | | | | 45,734 | | |
Total Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity
|
| | | $ | 251,504 | | | | | | | | | | | $ | 255,777 | | |
|
| | |
Estimated
Liquidation Value |
| |||
Net Asset Value
|
| | | $ | 45,700 | | |
Less: Estimated Fees to the Manager(4)
|
| | | | (18,300) | | |
Less: Estimated Costs to Liquidate the Assets(5)
|
| | | | (7,300) | | |
Estimated Liquidation Value
|
| | | $ | 20,100 | | |
Percentage of Book Value
|
| | | | 48.5% | | |
| | |
Preliminary ACY Valuation Indications
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
($ in thousands, except per share values)
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
Current Market Value
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
Low
|
| |
Mid
|
| |
High
|
| |
30-day
|
| |
10/20/2017
|
| |||||||||||||||
Equity Value
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
(1
)
|
| | | |
|
(2
)
|
| |
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
|
| | | $ | 24,700 | | | | | $ | 26,600 | | | | | $ | 28,500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Estimated Orderly Liquidation Value
|
| | | | | | | | | | 20,100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Indicated Equity Value
|
| | | $ | 24,700 | | | | | $ | 26,600 | | | | | $ | 28,500 | | | | | $ | 20,200 | | | | | $ | 19,200 | | |
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding(3)
|
| | | | 1,416,699 | | | | | | 1,416,699 | | | | | | 1,416,699 | | | | | | 1,416,699 | | | | | | 1,416,699 | | |
Resulting Implied Per Share Price
|
| | | $ | 17.43 | | | | | $ | 18.78 | | | | | $ | 20.12 | | | | | $ | 14.26 | | | | | $ | 13.55 | | |
| | |
Implied Multiples
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Book Value of Equity(4)
|
| | | $ | 41,461 | | | | | | 0.60x | | | | | | 0.64x | | | | | | 0.69x | | | | | | 0.49x | | | | | | 0.46x | | |
LTM Adj. Net Income(4)
|
| | | | 3,629 | | | | | | 6.8x | | | | | | 7.3x | | | | | | 7.9x | | | | | | 5.6x | | | | | | 5.3x | | |
2017 Est. Net Income(4)
|
| | | | 4,803 | | | | | | 5.1x | | | | | | 5.5x | | | | | | 5.9x | | | | | | 4.2x | | | | | | 4.0x | | |
2018 Proj. Net Income(4)
|
| | | | 1,516 | | | | | | 16.3x | | | | | | 17.5x | | | | | | 18.8x | | | | | | 13.3x | | | | | | 12.7x | | |
LTM Revenue(5)
|
| | | | 33,328 | | | | | | 5.24x | | | | | | 5.29x | | | | | | 5.35x | | | | | | 5.10x | | | | | | 5.07x | | |
2017 Est. Revenue(5)
|
| | | | 34,211 | | | | | | 5.10x | | | | | | 5.16x | | | | | | 5.21x | | | | | | 4.97x | | | | | | 4.94x | | |
2018 Proj. Revenue(5)
|
| | | | 33,438 | | | | | | 5.22x | | | | | | 5.28x | | | | | | 5.33x | | | | | | 5.09x | | | | | | 5.06x | | |
LTM Adj. EBITDA(5)
|
| | | | 23,582 | | | | | | 7.4x | | | | | | 7.5x | | | | | | 7.6x | | | | | | 7.2x | | | | | | 7.2x | | |
2017 Est. Adj. EBITDA(5)
|
| | | | 24,653 | | | | | | 7.1x | | | | | | 7.2x | | | | | | 7.2x | | | | | | 6.9x | | | | | | 6.9x | | |
2018 Proj. EBITDA(5)
|
| | | | 24,837 | | | | | | 7.0x | | | | | | 7.1x | | | | | | 7.2x | | | | | | 6.8x | | | | | | 6.8x | | |
| | |
Merger Consideration
|
| |||||||||
| | |
($ in thousands, except per share values)
|
| |||||||||
| | |
30-day Avg.
Trading Value(1) |
| |
D&P per-Share
Value Estimate(2) |
| ||||||
Stock Consideration | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Number of Shares(3)
|
| | | | 129,286 | | | | | | 129,286 | | |
Price per Share
|
| | | $ | 14.26 | | | | | $ | 18.78 | | |
Stock Consideration
|
| | | $ | 1,844 | | | | | $ | 2,427 | | |
Cash Consideration
|
| | | $ | 3,500 | | | | | $ | 3,500 | | |
Merger Consideration (rounded)
|
| | | $ | 5,350 | | | | | $ | 5,950 | | |
|
JHC Historical & Projected Financial Performance
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
($ in thousands)
|
| |
For the Years Ended December 31
|
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| |
Actual
|
| | | | | | | |
Estimate
|
| |
Management Projections
|
| |
Long-Term Projections
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
2013A
|
| |
2014A
|
| |
2015A
|
| |
2016A
|
| |
LTM(1)
|
| |
2017E
|
| |
2018P
|
| |
2019P
|
| |
2020P
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| |
2024P
|
| |
2025P(2)
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Management Fees
|
| | | $ | 4,352 | | | | | $ | 3,892 | | | | | $ | 5,581 | | | | | $ | 5,205 | | | | | $ | 6,109 | | | | | $ | 6,103 | | | | | $ | 6,148 | | | | | $ | 6,383 | | | | | $ | 6,732 | | | | | $ | 7,083 | | | | | $ | 7,399 | | | | | $ | 7,621 | | | | | $ | 7,850 | | | | | $ | 5,727 | | |
Growth
|
| | | | NA | | | | | | (10.6)% | | | | | | 43.4% | | | | | | (6.8)% | | | | | | NA | | | | | | 17.3% | | | | | | 0.7% | | | | | | 3.8% | | | | | | 5.5% | | | | | | 5.2% | | | | | | 4.5% | | | | | | 3.0% | | | | | | 3.0% | | | | | | 3.0% | | |
% of
Average NBV |
| | | | NA | | | | | | 2.3% | | | | | | 3.3% | | | | | | 2.0% | | | | | | 2.4% | | | | | | 2.3% | | | | | | 2.3% | | | | | | 2.3% | | | | | | 2.4% | | | | | | 2.4% | | | | | | 2.5% | | | | | | 2.5% | | | | | | 2.5% | | | | | | 2.5% | | |
Acquisition &
Other Fees |
| | | $ | 1,393 | | | | | $ |