Retail Investors Bullish on the U.S. in 2016

Is now is a good time to invest in the stock market?, a sampling of more than 1,000 American retail investors shows their opinion.

TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation’s (Nasdaq: AMTD) quarterly investor sentiment survey revealed 52 percent of today’s investors are bullish on the stock market, with another 33 percent expressing neutral sentiment. The result is an investor base that has little to no complaints about heading into a new year.

“Retail investors continue to reveal themselves as savvy and informed in their approach to trading and long-term financial planning,” says JJ Kinahan, chief strategist for TD Ameritrade. “We continue to see sentiment – and behavior – that indicates retail investors are thoughtful and disciplined in their approach, and in-step with general market performance.”

While 2 in 3 investors say their confidence in the stock market has not changed over the last 2-3 years, nearly 1 in 4 (23 percent) say their appetite for risk in the market has declined, at least over the last 6 months. This might suggest a skittish investing public, but according to TD Ameritrade’s Investor Movement Index, or the IMXSM, the company’s proprietary, investor behavior-based index, it may actually be an indication of educated investing.

“The IMX in 2015 peaked in June with a score of 5.39,” Kinahan continued. “Investors demonstrated sophistication as they started taking profits and lightening risk near the market highs and put risk back into play amid the volatility during the subsequent correction in late August. They did all things common to experienced investors: taking profits at the peak, and buying again at the bottom. Their activity echoes the sentiment we’re hearing now. Investors remain engaged, but a bit more cautiously than before.”

And, when it comes to confidence in the markets, a “macro” view of the markets and economy is key, with the main drivers of investor sentiment, according to the survey, including:

• General market performance: 62 percent
• General macroeconomic issues: 48 percent
• Federal reserve policies: 47 percent
• Federal spending or deficit: 40 percent
• Personal portfolio performance: 38 percent
• 2016 Presidential election cycle: 26 percent
• Political gridlock: 24 percent

Outlook for 2016

Investors remain relatively optimistic about the U.S. economic outlook in 2016. Half (50 percent) say they are optimistic, while another 29 percent are neutral. Likewise, investors are maintaining a relatively optimistic view of their personal economies, with 42 percent saying 2016 will be a better year for them financially than 2015, and 49 percent saying it will be “about the same.” Millennials and Gen-X’ers have a particularly sunny outlook, with 11 percent saying 2016 will be “much better” for them financially, versus just 4 percent of Boomers and Mature investors, who tended to express a more neutral sentiment.

And, investors have their personal financial priorities in check, with 47 percent professing confidence in their ability to meet them in 2016. Retirement planning is, for 59 percent of investors, the main objective, followed by:

• General wealth accumulation: 38 percent
• Pay off debt: 14 percent
• Fund a life-stage or lifestyle goal: 12 percent
• Day-to-day expenses: 11 percent
• Emergency fund: 8 percent
• Education expenses: 6 percent

Investors also made a few bold predictions for the coming year. Thirty-seven percent said Technology, will be the sector most likely to outperform in 2016, followed by Health Care (30 percent). Investors were less confident, however, in the likelihood that the markets might reach new highs. Just 13 percent professed confidence that the DOW would hit 19,000 within the next 12 months.

“Today’s investors have a good read on the trends that could guide the markets over the next 12 months,” Kinahan concluded. “They see no end to innovation, particularly the ways in which we can use mobile, social and cloud-based technologies, to enhance nearly everything we do. They are looking ahead to the Presidential elections and considering what impact that may have on sectors, like health care. They see the jobs reports, the notes from the Federal Reserve, and they feel good about what’s to come. They are hungry for information and education, and the more of that they receive from firms like TD Ameritrade and others, the more likely they will be to remain confident investors in 2016 as well.”

For the latest TD Ameritrade news and information, and more insights from this latest survey, follow the Company on Twitter, @TDAmeritradePR.

Past performance of a security, strategy or index is no guarantee of future results or investment success.

Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.

The IMX is not a tradable index. The IMX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for TD Ameritrade.

Source: TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation

Survey Methodology
1,033 investors shared their views on economic conditions and outlook for the market in general. These investors have at least $10,000 in investable assets, own securities in brokerage accounts, are 18 years or older, are involved in managing their portfolios and have traded securities at least once in the past 12 months.

The 1,033 survey respondents represent a random sample of investors selected from a consumer panel of individuals in the US who are have online access to the Internet.

The margin of error in this survey is ±3.0%. This means that in 19 cases out of 20, survey results based on 1,050 respondents will differ by no more than 3.0 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by seeking the opinions of all eligible individuals in the US who are online.

Research Now conducted this survey on behalf of TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation. Research Now and TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation are separate, unaffiliated companies and are not responsible for each other's products and services.

About Research Now
Research Now is the leading global online sampling and online data collection company. With over 6 million panelists in 38 countries worldwide, Research Now enables companies to listen to and interact with real consumers and business decision makers in order to make key business decisions.

About TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
Millions of investors and independent registered investment advisors (RIAs) have turned to TD Ameritrade’s technology, people and education to help make investing and trading easier to understand and do. Online or over the phone. In a branch or with an independent RIA. First-timer or sophisticated trader. Our clients want to take control, and we help them decide how — bringing Wall Street to Main Street for more than 40 years. An official sponsor of the 2014 and 2016 U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Teams, TD Ameritrade has time and again been recognized as a leader in investment services. Please visit TD Ameritrade’s newsroom or www.amtd.com for more information.

Brokerage services provided by TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA (www.FINRA.org)/SIPC (www.SIPC.org)

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