Monday Market Movement – Wasted Spring

June 21, 2021 at 08:54 AM EDT

Nowhere for 3 months . That's where we've gone with Q2 all but completed and that's a shame when we were just kissing all-time highs a couple of weeks ago but it's all evaporated since then though it has not been bad for our portfolios ( See Friday's Reviews ) – as we were pretty skeptical of the rally. We didn't get more bearish as we think 33,000 should hold up on the Dow for at least a bounce and, falling from 35,000 is a 2,000-point drop so we expect 400-point bounces to 33,400 (weak) and 33,800 (strong) . If we fail to take back and hold 33,800, THEN we may have a serious problem but the Futures are already giving us a weak bounce on pretty much zero volume (so meaningless). The S&P 500 is still up 4% from March's close and that's more meaningful than the Dow. The Nasdaq was at 13,300 and now 14,100 so 800 points is 6% higher than we were on April Fools Day while the Russell is actually a bit lower than it was. So mixed signals from the majors and mixed signals in other Global Markets are not what you expect from a record-high market yet, so far, no sell-off has gone unrebounded – we'll just have to keep our eye on the data to figure out what's coming next. IN PROGRESS

Nowhere for 3 months.

That's where we've gone with Q2 all but completed and that's a shame when we were just kissing all-time highs a couple of weeks ago but it's all evaporated since then though it has not been bad for our portfolios (See Friday's Reviews) – as we were pretty skeptical of the rally. We didn't get more bearish as we think 33,000 should hold up on the Dow for at least a bounce and, falling from 35,000 is a 2,000-point drop so we expect 400-point bounces to 33,400 (weak) and 33,800 (strong). If we fail to take back and hold 33,800, THEN we may have a serious problem but the Futures are already giving us a weak bounce on pretty much zero volume (so meaningless).

The S&P 500 is still up 4% from March's close and that's more meaningful than the Dow. The Nasdaq was at 13,300 and now 14,100 so 800 points is 6% higher than we were on April Fools Day while the Russell is actually a bit lower than it was. So mixed signals from the majors and mixed signals in other Global Markets are not what you expect from a record-high market yet, so far, no sell-off has gone unrebounded – we'll just have to keep our eye on the data to figure out what's coming next.

IN PROGRESS