Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting in the November election, but the spread has narrowed, according to a new Fox News national survey.
If voting today, the survey shows the race tied, as 41% would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 41% the Republican. The GOP had a 3-point edge in July and June, and a 7-point advantage in May.
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"Between passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, killing al Qaeda’s leader, less pain at the pump, and the Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices taking away abortion rights, the political landscape is less horrible for Democrats," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. "There are successes Democrats can point to that didn’t exist in the spring, but the biggest single change I see in this poll is the increased disapproval of the Supreme Court and suspect that is a significant factor."
Fifty-five percent disapprove of the Supreme Court’s job performance, up from 48% in June.
Meanwhile, the shift in vote preference mainly comes from women. They preferred the GOP candidate by 1 point in May and now go for the Democrat by 6.
Also since May, party loyalty among Democrats increased by 3 points and decreased among Republicans by 2 points. And while independents remain largely undecided, their support for the GOP candidate is down 2 points.
More Republicans than Democrats are enthusiastic about casting a ballot (50% vs. 41%) and certain they will vote (69% vs. 60%).
Shaw says the survey results still favor the GOP in November.
"In recent congressional elections, an even ballot test has meant the Republicans are extremely likely to win a majority of seats," says Shaw. "This is because of two things. One, Democrats are more geographically concentrated in a smaller set of districts and two, Republicans have drawn more districts to their advantage. This effect should remain in 2022, although it may be diminished after the latest round of redistricting."
The generic ballot number comes from a national survey of voters and not from a series of individual Congressional district surveys. Because more districts have been drawn to be overwhelmingly Democratic than overwhelmingly Republican, the Democrats need a higher generic ballot number to expect to win more actual seats.
Inflation is clearly the top issue to voters and it’s not even close. Forty-one percent say it will be most important to their vote for Congress, with abortion a distant second at 14%. All other issues are in the mid-to-low single digits, including border security, climate change, and guns.
Republicans (51%) are twice as likely as Democrats (25%) to prioritize inflation. That’s because many Democrats put abortion (20%), climate change (12%), and voting rights (11%) at the top. For Republicans, after inflation, the priorities are border security (13%) and abortion (10%).
Those prioritizing inflation are more likely to back the Republican candidate by a 54-25% margin, while those emphasizing abortion go for the Democratic candidate by 61%-25%.
Among voters whose top issue is abortion, 75% disapprove of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. Overall, 38% of voters approve of the Dobbs decision, while 60% disapprove.
While fewer voters approve of Dobbs, more of them are extremely motivated to vote than those who disapprove (59% vs. 50%).
Voters say Republicans can better handle border security (+19 points), inflation (+15), and crime (+15). They trust Democrats on climate change (+12) and abortion (+9). It’s more evenly divided on education (D +2) and gun policy (R +3), and there’s no party advantage on handling the future of American democracy or opioid addiction.
Independents trust Republicans over Democrats to handle most issues, including the top issue of inflation (R +27 points), plus crime (R +38), border security (R +35), gun policy (R +21), the future of American democracy (R +11), and opioid addiction (R +9). They think Democrats can better handle climate change (D +8) and abortion (D +7).
"The issue climate remains extremely favorable to the GOP," says Shaw. "The introduction of the abortion issue through the Dobbs decision means it may be ‘less terrible’ for the Democrats, but the main question continues to be whether Republicans can capitalize on their good fortune or whether they squander their advantage."
Both President Biden and former President Trump are drags on their party this November. By an 11-point margin, more say their congressional vote will be to express opposition to Biden rather than support for him. For Trump, opposition is higher by 10 points. One-third say Biden and Trump won’t be a factor in their vote.
Forty-two percent of voters approve of the job Biden’s doing, while 58% disapprove. That’s up from a low of 40-59% last month. His highest ratings, 56-43%, came in June 2021.
It’s tough for the president to help a congressional candidate with those marks, although he’s not alone. A Biden endorsement makes voters less likely to support a candidate by 20 points, while one from Trump does more to hurt than help by 15. In fact, all the political officials included on the survey would make voters less likely to support the endorsed candidate: Vice President Kamala Harris (less likely by 21 points), Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney (18), former Vice President Mike Pence (13), Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (12), and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (6).
Poll Pourri
On a party-line vote Sunday, the Senate passed Democrats’ new domestic spending plan, known as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Views on the plan also split among voters, with 44% approving and disapproving. Nearly half say they at least somewhat understand what’s in the plan, and among this group 59% approve, while 37% disapprove. Some of that comes from more Democrats (55%) than Republicans (42%) being familiar with the bill
Seventy-two percent of voters think it is important for the Justice Department to investigate Hunter Biden's business dealings with foreign government. By comparison, 65% say the January 6 hearings are important, down from 71% who felt that way in June.
Over half of Democrats (61%) join two-thirds of independents (67%) and a large majority of Republicans (86%) in saying investigating Hunter Biden is important.
Fewer than half of Republicans (41%) join two-thirds of independents (65%) and an overwhelming majority of Democrats (91%) in calling the January 6 investigation important.
Forty-five percent of independents and 44% of generic ballot undecideds say the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6 will have a great deal or some influence on their vote this fall.
Overall, 50% say January 6 will influence their vote, and they support the Democratic candidate over the Republican by a 62-23% margin.
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Conducted August 6-9, 2022, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,002 registered voters nationwide who were randomly selected from a national voter file and spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The total sample has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
