Forget the statistical analysis chatter from the guru of the minute and the price of oil or gold because we’re in a Mother Goose economy.The author of nursery rhymes summed up our current fine mess in “This is the House that Jack Built.” The endless repetition delights children at bedtime and drives its adult readers nuts but the lesson is clear: Events are linked and there’s no clear way to escape the logical progression of the unfolding chaos underscored by the utter complacency of all involved.If you haven’t been able to pry yourself away from the latest grim table ...

Economist Brad DeLong of the Department of Economics at UC Berkeley is getting increasingly pessimistic. He says the chance of Great Depression now is at 5%:  For 2 1/4 years now I have been saying that there is no chance of a repeat of the Great Depression or anything like it -- that we know what to do and how to do it and will do it if things turn south.I don't think I can say that anymore. In my estimation the chances of another big downward shock to the US economy -- a shock that would carry us ...

Birds are singing the sun is shining and life is beautiful again. On the surface the vital signs of our economy are improving with every economic report. In some areas like unemployment the rate of decline is decelerating. In others like GDP decline is turning into growth.The stock market is behaving as if the history of the last 20 years is about to repeat itself: Recession will turn into a robust expansion. Stock prices are discounting an expectation of robust earnings recovery to a level only slightly below the pre-financial crisis level and risk-taking is in vogue again as ...

Edward R. Dewey was a Harvard-educated economist who worked for the Department of Commerce during the 1929 stock market crash. After the crash he was assigned the task of finding out what caused the economic disaster. After a few years in this position he left the government and went to work with Chapin Hoskins a stock market analyst and previous managing editor of Forbes magazine.In his book Cycles: The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events he said he was distressed by the reasons given by the leading economists as to why the depression happened but while conducting his research he ...

After successfully lobbying for an extended and expanded home-buyer tax credit, the National Association of Realtors will focus its policy agenda in the months ahead on relief from a credit crunch in commercial real estate, among other issues.