Moderna’s second quarter results were met with a negative market reaction, as investors focused on both a sharp decline in year-over-year sales and ongoing operational challenges. Management attributed quarterly performance primarily to lower COVID vaccine demand and highlighted that U.S. sales performed above internal expectations due to a stronger spring booster campaign. CEO Stéphane Bancel pointed to significant cost-cutting efforts, including a 35% reduction in combined cost of sales and SG&A, and noted, “We remain highly focused on financial discipline.” The company also announced a 10% workforce reduction to further align its cost structure with current demand.
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Moderna (MRNA) Q2 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $142 million vs analyst estimates of $128.3 million (41.1% year-on-year decline, 10.7% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: -$2.13 vs analyst estimates of -$3.00 (29% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: -$850 million vs analyst estimates of -$1.21 billion
- The company dropped its revenue guidance for the full year to $1.85 billion at the midpoint from $2 billion, a 7.5% decrease
- Operating Margin: -639%, down from -566% in the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $9.98 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Moderna’s Q2 Earnings Call
- Salveen Jaswal Richter (Goldman Sachs) asked about the addition of secondary endpoints in the CMV vaccine trial; President Stephen Hoge explained this was to capture more data relevant to broader patient populations and that the final analysis will occur this fall.
- Eliana Rachel Merle (UBS) inquired about U.S. COVID vaccine pricing; CFO James Mock declined to give specifics but said pricing and contracting are complete and factored into the current revenue range.
- Michael Jonathan Yee (Jefferies) sought clarity on what would constitute a positive CMV readout and the influence of regulatory changes; Hoge emphasized the study was powered for over 49% vaccine efficacy and that regulator dialogues remain constructive.
- Courtney Breen (Bernstein) questioned the focus of headcount reductions and potential areas of hiring; CEO Stéphane Bancel and Mock described cuts across manufacturing, R&D, and G&A, while highlighting ongoing hiring for launches and key capabilities.
- Luca Issi (RBC) probed business development strategy and partnering in China; Bancel stated Moderna remains open to partnerships for non-mRNA assets and is prioritizing financial discipline over advancing all internal candidates.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking ahead, our team will closely watch (1) the pace of regulatory approvals and launches for the seasonal flu vaccine and the flu-COVID combination candidate, (2) the readout of Phase III efficacy data for the CMV vaccine and progress in oncology studies, and (3) the company’s execution on additional cost-cutting measures and ability to sustain operational efficiencies. Updates on product uptake in key international markets and further headway in pipeline diversification will also be important markers of success.
Moderna currently trades at $25.79, down from $29.56 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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