March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.40%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.85% this morning, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street after the long weekend as concerns around AI continue to weigh on sentiment.
Investors remain concerned about companies’ swelling AI budgets as well as the technology’s potential to disrupt industries beyond the tech sector. There is “lingering anxiety about whether AI spending will be profitable enough, concerns about competition, and a broader de-risking from the most crowded trades after a very strong run,” according to Aneeka Gupta at WisdomTree.
Investor focus this week is on a flurry of U.S. economic data, with particular attention on the PCE inflation reading and the advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, and earnings reports from several high-profile companies.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed mixed. Software stocks climbed, with CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) rising over +4% and ServiceNow (NOW) gaining more than +3%. Also, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks popped after the price of Bitcoin rose more than +4%, with Coinbase Global (COIN) jumping over +16% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Strategy (MSTR) surging more than +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT) advanced over +8% after the largest U.S. supplier of chipmaking gear posted better-than-expected FQ1 results and issued surprisingly strong FQ2 guidance. On the bearish side, Constellation Brands (STZ) slumped more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the alcoholic beverage company said Nicholas Fink would succeed Bill Newlands as CEO.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Friday showed that consumer prices rose +0.2% m/m in January, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the smallest gain since July. On an annual basis, headline inflation eased to +2.4% in January from +2.7% in December, weaker than expectations of +2.5%. Also, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose +0.3% m/m and +2.5% y/y in January, in line with expectations.
“For the Fed, [the CPI report] probably doesn’t change much in the near term,” said James McCann at Edward Jones. “We do see scope for further easing later this year. However, this is contingent on a more convincing decline in inflation towards target with the urgency for additional cuts lower now that downside risks in the labor market have seemingly eased.”
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that the central bank could lower interest rates further if inflation is on course to hit its 2% target, but that is not currently the case. “Right now, we are not on a path back to 2%. We’re kind of stuck at 3%, and that’s not acceptable,” Goolsbee said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92.2% chance of no rate change and a 7.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
In this holiday-shortened week, the December reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlight, as investors continue to gauge the timing of the next interest rate cut. The advance estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the fourth quarter will also be closely watched, encompassing a period that included the longest-ever federal government shutdown. Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, Pending Home Sales, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, Personal Spending, Personal Income, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), the S&P Global Services PMI (preliminary), New Home Sales, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.
Market participants will also be monitoring the Fed’s minutes from the January 27-28 meeting, set for release on Wednesday, to assess the debate between officials who support keeping rates steady and those who advocate for rate cuts. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged last month following three consecutive cuts at the end of 2025. “The January minutes will likely detail the arguments that support a wait-and-see approach versus those that could support rate cuts, consistent with the different viewpoints expressed by various FOMC policymakers since the meeting,” according to HSBC analysts.
In addition, market watchers will scrutinize remarks from a host of Fed officials. Fed Governor Michael Barr, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are scheduled to speak this week.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is winding down, but several notable companies are due to report this week, including Walmart (WMT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Deere & Company (DE), and Constellation Energy (CEG).
Meanwhile, quarterly 13F filings detailing the holdings and transactions of Berkshire Hathaway and other major investors are set to begin appearing this week, shedding light on fourth-quarter portfolio changes.
Today, investors will focus on the New York Fed-compiled Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the February figure to come in at 6.4, compared to 7.7 in January.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.028%, down -0.59%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.02% this morning, attempting to stabilize after days of volatility fueled by concerns over the disruptive impact of AI across various industries. Utilities, insurance, and healthcare stocks advanced on Tuesday. At the same time, mining stocks slumped as metal prices retreated. Defense stocks also slid, with attention on key nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran as well as U.S.-brokered peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva. Data from the Office for National Statistics released on Tuesday showed that the U.K. unemployment rate climbed to its highest level since the pandemic and wage growth cooled in the fourth quarter, giving the Bank of England further reason to cut its key rate next month. Separately, final data confirmed that Germany’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.1% in January. In addition, the ZEW economic research institute reported that German investor morale unexpectedly declined in February, underscoring the fragile nature of the recovery in Europe’s biggest economy. Investor attention now shifts to the Eurozone PMI data, which will provide a more timely snapshot of business activity midway through the first quarter, along with comments from European Central Bank officials, including Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, due later in the week. In corporate news, Avolta AG (AVOL.Z.IX) climbed over +6% after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral.
U.K. Average Earnings ex Bonus, U.K. Unemployment Rate, Germany’s CPI, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and Eurozone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index were released today.
U.K. Average Earnings ex Bonus stood at 4.2% in the three months to December, in line with expectations.
The U.K. Unemployment Rate was 5.2% in the three months to December, weaker than expectations of 5.1%.
The German January CPI rose +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y, in line with expectations.
The German February ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 58.3, weaker than expectations of 65.8.
The Eurozone February ZEW Economic Sentiment Index arrived at 39.4, weaker than expectations of 45.7.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.42%, while China’s financial markets were closed for a holiday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today as the absence of fresh catalysts prompted investors to lock in profits. Technology stocks were among the biggest losers on Tuesday. Persistent concerns about AI-driven disruption continued to weigh on growth-oriented names, with SoftBank Group slumping over -5% and dragging the benchmark index down by 187 points. Financial and industrial stocks also slid. Limiting losses, energy and automobile stocks advanced. Ryotaro Sawada, senior analyst at Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory, said, “There’s just far too little in the way of catalysts. We’re seeing some technical profit-taking.” Meanwhile, Japan’s bonds climbed on Tuesday after demand at a five-year government bond auction increased for the first time since September amid fading expectations of an early rate hike by the Bank of Japan. In other news, Reuters reported on Tuesday that Japan is likely to see annual bond issuance jump 28% three years from now due to rising debt-servicing costs, raising questions about Premier Sanae Takaichi’s claim that the country can implement tax cuts without increasing debt. In corporate news, Sumitomo Pharma climbed over +7% as Japan’s health ministry is set to review the drugmaker’s iPS cell-derived therapy for advanced Parkinson’s disease this week. Investor focus this week is on Japan’s trade and inflation data, with the latter anticipated to ease while remaining close to the BOJ’s target. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -3.90% to 29.82.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index was closed today for the Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland China’s financial markets will reopen on Tuesday, February 24th.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks are moving lower in pre-market trading, with Meta Platforms (META) and Nvidia (NVDA) falling over -1%.
Chip stocks slid in pre-market trading. Micron Technology (MU) is down more than -2%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) are down over -1%.
Dollar General (DG) fell over -1% in pre-market trading after Rothschild & Co. Redburn downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral with a $111 price target.
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) jumped more than +35% in pre-market trading after German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd agreed to acquire the company for $4.2 billion.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) climbed over +7% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist Elliott Investment Management had built a more than 10% stake in the company and plans to push for changes.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - February 17th
Medtronic (MDT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Republic Services (RSG), Energy Transfer LP (ET), Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), EQT Corporation (EQT), Kenvue (KVUE), DTE Energy Company (DTE), FirstEnergy (FE), Devon Energy (DVN), Expand Energy (EXE), Labcorp Holdings (LH), Leidos Holdings (LDOS), Genuine Parts Company (GPC), Somnigroup International (SGI), RB Global (RBA), MKS Inc. (MKSI), Watsco (WSO.B), Watsco (WSO), Toll Brothers (TOL), Allegion (ALLE), Hecla Mining Company (HL), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), IAMGOLD (IAG), Sunoco LP (SUN), Valmont Industries (VMI), Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO), Krystal Biotech (KRYS), Element Solutions (ESI), Fluor (FLR), Louisiana-Pacific (LPX), Celanese (CE), Glaukos (GKOS), Herc Holdings (HRI), Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG), Rush Enterprises (RUSHA), SSR Mining (SSRM), Mercury General (MCY), Franklin Electric Co. (FELE), Knife River (KNF), Rush Enterprises (RUSHB), Waystar Holding (WAY), Itron (ITRI), USA Compression Partners (USAC), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Axcelis Technologies (ACLS), Bel Fuse (BELFA), Bel Fuse (BELFB), The Andersons (ANDE), Huntsman (HUN), Innospec (IOSP), National Energy Services Reunited (NESR), Hillman Solutions (HLMN), Rogers (ROG), Goosehead Insurance (GSHD), Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT), Pitney Bowes (PBI), AtriCure (ATRC), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Select Water Solutions (WTTR), NeoGenomics (NEO), LGI Homes (LGIH), NANO Nuclear Energy (NNE), JBG SMITH Properties (JBGS), Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD), Centerspace (CSR), Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN), Ferroglobe (GSM).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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