AIR Communities Reports Second Quarter 2023 Results

Apartment Income REIT Corp. ("AIR" or the "Company") (NYSE: AIRC) announced today results for the second quarter of 2023.

During the second quarter, the Company:

• Delivered Pro forma FFO per share of $0.58, reflecting 13.7% year-over-year growth (adjusting for prior contribution of the Aimco note prepayment) and beating the midpoint of guidance by $0.01 per share;
• Delivered Same Store NOI growth of 10.6%;
• Formed two joint ventures to recapitalize 11 properties valued at $1.2 billion, with nine of 11 properties now closed and the remaining two expected to close by year-end;
• Used proceeds from the joint ventures to reduce Net Leverage to Adjusted EBITDAre to 5.9x on a pro forma basis, within AIR’s targeted range;
• Expects to use the balance of proceeds to purchase properties, now in advanced negotiations, with current returns neutral to 2023 FFO and $0.01 accretive to 2024 FFO, with long-term unlevered IRRs in excess of 10%;
• Raises Same Store Revenue and NOI guidance by 20 and 40-basis points, respectively, at their midpoints;
• Narrows the guidance range for 2023 Pro forma FFO per share to $2.38 to $2.44 while maintaining $2.41 as the midpoint, which is unchanged due to higher than anticipated casualty losses. The $2.41 midpoint represents a 10% growth versus 2022 Run-Rate FFO per share of $2.19; and
• Expects Pro forma FFO per share between $0.61 and $0.65 in the third quarter, and between $1.26 and $1.32 in the second half of 2023, driven primarily by property operations increasing its first half contribution by $20.4 million, or $0.13 of FFO per share.

With more than 80% of 2023 leasing now complete, the Company expects the earn-in to Same Store Revenue growth in 2024 in the low-to-mid 2% range. With largely fixed operating expenses, low G&A, and fixed interest rates, 2024 growth in NOI – from both Same Store and Acquisition portfolios – is expected to translate directly to growth in Pro forma FFO per share.

Financial Results: Second Quarter Run-Rate FFO Per Share Up 13.7%

In the second quarter of 2022, with the support of shareholders, AIR accepted prepayment of the Aimco note, which contributed $0.15 to 2022 Pro forma FFO per share. This makes 2022 not comparable to 2023. Adjusting for this event, second quarter FFO of $0.58 per share is 13.7% higher in 2023 than in 2022.

Operating Results: Second Quarter Same Store NOI Up 10.6% YoY and 11.6% YTD

AIR's Same Store portfolio comprises 63 properties and provided 85% of year-to-date rental revenue.

Second quarter 2023 Same Store NOI margin was 74.2%, up 120-basis points year-over-year and an AIR record for the second quarter, the result of:

• 8.8% growth in Residential Rents, and
• Sustained cost control with controllable expenses increasing only 100 basis points.

Components of Same Store Revenue Growth

Same Store Rental Rates & Occupancy

• Second quarter signed lease rate growth is higher than assumed in our annual plan with a blended rate increase of 6.5% benefiting from (i) 10-basis points from 2021 acquisitions (now in Same Store) and (ii) 70-basis points from capital enhancement activity.
• Average Daily Occupancy ("ADO") declined 190-basis points sequentially due to (i) normal and expected seasonality (110-basis points of decline) due to the frictional vacancy of the leasing season and (ii) increased move-outs of non-paying residents as COVID-related protections expired (60-basis points).
• ADO is anticipated to reach its low point in July, and then increase in the third and fourth quarters.

Rent Collections & Bad Debt

During the second quarter, AIR recognized 98.8% of all residential revenue billed in the quarter with the remaining 1.2% reserved as gross bad debt. Payments received during the second quarter with respect to revenue treated as bad debt in previous periods, totaled 60-basis points of second quarter residential revenue resulting in bad debt for the second quarter, net of the contra entry, of 0.6% of residential revenue.

• Of the 1.2% in gross bad debt: (i) 50-basis points reflects a level of delinquency that is slightly higher than AIR's experience in 2019, (ii) 40-basis points is due to slower action by courts as a result of backlogs created by pandemic-related government shutdowns, and (iii) 30-basis points is due to the move-out and related fees charged to individuals who were evicted or terminated their lease early.
• There are currently 150 delinquent residents in AIR's portfolio. 70 residents represents a "normalized" rate for credit issues, slightly higher than pre-COVID levels of approximately 50 residents, on average per month. The slower action by courts. noted above, provides more time for delinquent residents and increase the amount of bad debt per defaulting resident, which explains the incremental 80 residents in the process of collection.
• As of June 30, 2023, AIR's proportionate share of residential accounts receivable was $4.8 million, or $0.1 million net of security deposits and reserves for uncollectible amounts.

Acquisition Portfolio Performance

Transactions

AIR has property operation expertise, termed the AIR Edge, which results in higher property NOI, enabling AIR to acquire properties and deploy the AIR Edge to improve their profitability and value. This enables AIR to sell properties at market NOI cap rates and unlevered IRRs, and to reinvest capital in acquisition properties which generally enjoy accelerated growth in profitability relative to general market rates.

AIR’s business is to acquire properties, deploy the AIR Edge, and generate returns 200-basis points, or higher, than AIR’s cost of capital, as measured by unlevered IRR. “Paired trades” make agnostic to changes in market conditions insofar as AIR is buying and selling at roughly the same time. The benefits – enhanced total NOI growth and higher FFO – are realized primarily in years two through four as it requires more than one turn of the rent roll to implement AIR’s menu of high credit standards, measured customer satisfaction, customer retention, lowered operating costs, and completion of planned capital improvements.

Joint Venture Transactions

As previously announced, AIR formed two joint ventures in the quarter, the first of which closed on June 30, 2023 through the sale of a 70% interest in Huntington Gateway (the “Value-Add JV”), and the second of which closed on July 17, 2023 through the sale of a 47% interest in eight of ten properties (the “Core JV”). The remaining two properties within the Core JV are expected to close before year-end. AIR now has four separate joint venture partnerships, each (i) with world-class investors interested in doing more with AIR, (ii) paying asset and property management fees, and (iii) providing substantial opportunity to earn “promotes.” For AIR, joint ventures are a strategic source of attractively priced capital, and provide AIR the resources to pursue a broader opportunity set to pursue growth. AIR expects to sell further interests of the existing joint ventures to increase expected returns on its retained investment, and to make available additional capital to invest in future AIR Edge properties with higher returns.

Dispositions

AIR is nearing completion of its strategic exit from New York City through:

• The sale of two properties with 62 apartment homes to a developer for gross proceeds of $33.2 million and a non-cash GAAP loss of $8.2 million; and
• Signing a contract to sell its remaining New York City property, at a price which resulted in a non-cash GAAP write-down of $15.4 million.

In aggregate since the Separation, AIR has recognized non-cash GAAP gains of $1.5 billion on $2.2 billion of dispositions.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

To lower its cost of capital and enhance financial returns, AIR targets Net Leverage to EBITDAre between 5.0x to 6.0x with focus on fixed-rate, long-term debt with well laddered maturities. We maintain flexibility through (i) ample unused and available credit, (ii) holding properties with substantial value unencumbered by property debt, and (iii) maintaining an investment grade rating.

Balance sheet highlights, pro forma for the announced joint ventures, include:

• Reduction in Net Leverage to EBITDAre to 5.9x, within AIR’s targeted range, and extension of its weighted-average maturities by more than seven months;
• 96% fixed-rate leverage with limited repricing risk before the second quarter of 2025;
• Available liquidity of $2.3 billion and access to more potentially secured by $5.8 billion in unencumbered property value; and
• Limited refunding risk with the ability to fund all maturities through 2027 from cash on hand, and a 10-year commitment to make $1 billion of property loans with up to 10-year maturities.

Dividend & Equity Capital Markets

On July 25, 2023, the AIR Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.45 per share of Common Stock, payable on August 29, 2023 to shareholders of record on August 18, 2023. The Board of Directors targeted a 75% payout ratio on Pro forma FFO in setting the dividend for 2023, which is also expected to have favorable tax characteristics due to AIR’s tax basis refreshed at the time of the Separation from Aimco.

Components of AIR Pro forma FFO

With a total of approximately $2.2 billion of third party capital assets now under management, third party asset, property management and transaction related fees are a small, but growing component of AIR FFO. In 2023, AIR anticipates 96% of its Pro forma FFO will be earned from levered property operations, with the remaining 4%, or $0.11 per share, largely attributable to property management, asset management, and transactional services provided to third parties and venture partners.

2023 Outlook

AIR’s midpoint of Pro forma FFO per share of $2.41 remains unchanged. Our guidance ranges are shown below and generally tightened based on activities completed year-to-date:

In the third quarter of 2023, AIR anticipates Pro forma FFO between $0.61 and $0.65 per share.

Earnings Conference Call Information

Supplemental Information

The full text of this Earnings Release and the Supplemental Information referenced in this release is available on AIR’s website at investors.aircommunities.com.

Glossary & Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial and Operating Measures

Financial and operating measures found in this Earnings Release and the Supplemental Information include certain financial measures used by AIR management that are measures not defined under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (“GAAP”). Certain AIR terms and Non-GAAP measures are defined in the Glossary in the Supplemental Information and Non-GAAP measures reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measures.

About AIR

Apartment Income REIT Corp (NYSE: AIRC) is a publicly traded, self-administered real estate investment trust (“REIT”). AIR’s portfolio comprises 73 communities totaling 25,739 apartment homes located in 10 states and the District of Columbia. AIR offers a simple, predictable business model with focus on what we call the AIR Edge, the cumulative result of our focus on resident selection, satisfaction, and retention, as well as relentless innovation in delivering best-in-class property management. The AIR Edge is a durable operating advantage in driving organic growth, as well as making possible the opportunity for excess returns for properties new to AIR’s platform. For additional information, please visit aircommunities.com.

Forward-looking Statements

This Earnings Release and Supplemental Information contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal securities laws, including, without limitation, statements regarding projected results and specifically forecasts of 2023 results, including but not limited to: NAREIT FFO, Pro forma FFO, Run-rate FFO and selected components thereof; expectations regarding consumer demand, growth in revenue and strength of other performance metrics and models; expectations regarding acquisitions, as well as sales, and joint ventures and the use of proceeds thereof; and AIR liquidity and leverage metrics. We caution investors not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations, estimates and assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties, that could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: real estate and operating risks, including fluctuations in real estate values and the general economic climate in the markets in which we operate and competition for residents in such markets; national and local economic conditions, including inflation, the pace of job growth, and the level of unemployment; the amount, location, and quality of competitive new housing supply, which may be impacted by global supply chain disruptions; the timing and effects of acquisitions and dispositions; changes in operating costs, including energy costs; negative economic conditions in our geographies of operation; loss of key personnel; AIR’s ability to maintain current or meet projected occupancy, rental rate, and property operating results; expectations regarding sales of apartment communities and the use of proceeds thereof; insurance risks, including the cost of insurance, and natural disasters and severe weather such as hurricanes; financing risks, including interest rate changes and the availability and cost of financing; the risk that cash flows from operations may be insufficient to meet required payments of principal and interest; the risk that earnings may not be sufficient to maintain compliance with debt covenants, including financial coverage ratios; legal and regulatory risks, including costs associated with prosecuting or defending claims and any adverse outcomes; the terms of laws and governmental regulations that affect us and interpretations of those laws and regulations; and possible environmental liabilities, including costs, fines, or penalties that may be incurred due to necessary remediation of contamination of apartment communities presently or previously owned by AIR. Other risks and uncertainties are described in filings by AIR with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including the section entitled “Risk Factors” in Item 1A of AIR’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and subsequent filings with the SEC.

In addition, our current and continuing qualification as a real estate investment trust involves the application of highly technical and complex provisions of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the “Code”), and depends on our ability to meet the various requirements imposed by the Code, through actual operating results, distribution levels and diversity of stock ownership.

These forward-looking statements reflect management’s judgment as of this date, and we assume no obligation to revise or update them to reflect future events or circumstances. This earnings release does not constitute an offer of securities for sale.

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