• Two powerful weather patterns—a dual ocean temperature "blob" system in the Pacific and weakened polar vortex—will drive winter volatility
• Early warning signals give markets 30- to 40-day lead times on cold snaps and identify clear regional patterns shaping risk and opportunity
• Regional split creates opportunities in energy, agriculture, and insurance as Pacific Northwest stays wet while California faces a six-month dry spell

As markets seek reliable forecasts to navigate increasingly volatile weather patterns, Planette released its Winter 2025-26 Long-Range Weather Forecast & Commodity Outlook. While most forecasters are focused on a weak La Niña signal that could have minimal impact, Planette, a leader in long-range weather prediction backed by NASA and the National Science Foundation, has identified the drivers creating substantial trading opportunities with unprecedented lead times. Planette’s platform, which combines cutting-edge AI with decades of Earth system science, projects a winter marked by predictable volatility, with above-average temperatures and multiple cold snaps anticipated 30 to 40 days ahead.

"There has been a lot of discussion about La Niña heading into winter, but it is too weak to matter. What we're seeing instead are other, more powerful patterns that create real trading opportunities," said Dr. Hansi Singh, founder and CEO of Planette. "We can give energy traders and utilities two to three weeks more notice than traditional forecasts before major cold snaps hit. That kind of lead time means you're not reacting anymore, you're positioning ahead of the market."

Planette’s forecasts show that two patterns are responsible for creating the conditions for a volatile winter. First, a dual “blob” system has developed in the North Pacific: a massive warm ocean temperature pattern roughly 5,000 miles across in the western sector and a contrasting cold mass in the Gulf of Alaska. Together, these drive major displacements of the jet stream northward. This creates a clear regional split as the Pacific Northwest gets wetter throughout winter, while California faces significantly drier-than-normal conditions for the next six months.

Second, a weakened polar vortex will allow Arctic air to spill southward in predictable patterns, providing 30-40 days of warning before that cold air reaches the surface. Multiple significant cold snaps are almost certain, likely starting late November or early December 2025.

The long-range forecast provides critical intelligence for multiple sectors where weather directly impacts bottom lines:

• Energy Markets: The 30-40 day lead time on cold snaps enables positioning in natural gas and heating oil ahead of demand surges. The Pacific Northwest will have stronger hydroelectric production while California faces power generation constraints.
• Agricultural Commodities: Warmer-than-average temperatures delay hard frost by 1-3 weeks across most of North America and Europe, extending growing seasons and helping winter wheat get established. However, sudden cold snaps pose a risk for actively growing crops. California's dry outlook puts pressure on water-intensive crops like nuts and stone fruits, while precipitation shortfalls in Southern and Eastern Europe threaten wine grapes and olives.
• Insurance and Risk Modeling: Forecasts can trigger insurance payouts or protective actions at vulnerable points in supply chains before damage occurs. Insurers can also identify which portfolios have exposure to cold snaps in Eurasia or flooding in the Pacific Northwest.

There is historical precedent for the current setup. Winter 2013-2014, one of the most volatile and profitable winters on record for commodity traders, featured a similar large warm ocean "blob" and multiple Arctic intrusions. Critically, that winter preceded the strongest El Niño on record in 2015-2016. If the pattern holds, winter 2025-2026's volatility may be a precursor to a strong El Niño developing in 2026-2027, with potential record-breaking high temperatures beginning in late 2026 or 2027.

"Insurance companies and commodity traders are making billion-dollar decisions based on forecasts that only go out 10 to 14 days," said Singh. "Our platform extends that horizon to weeks and months of weather insights, giving these professionals the lead time they need to manage risk and position portfolios ahead of major market moves."

Unlike traditional forecasting platforms that rely solely on short-term atmospheric models, Planette's technology integrates ocean, land, and atmospheric signals to unlock predictability months ahead. By monitoring stratospheric conditions that other forecasters overlook, the platform identifies early warning signals that give markets actionable lead times unavailable through conventional approaches.

Planette's Winter 2025-26 Long-Range Weather Forecast & Commodity Outlook is available to download on the company’s website. Weekly forecast updates on stratospheric signals and cold snap timing are available, enabling traders and risk managers to refine strategies as conditions evolve.

For more information about Planette's AI-driven long-range forecasting platforms, winter outlook, or enterprise APIs, please visit https://www.planette.ai.

About Planette

Planette is a long-range weather prediction platform that combines cutting-edge AI with decades of Earth system science. Planette enables businesses, governments, and individuals to make proactive decisions in the face of increasing weather volatility. The company's forecasting platform bridges the gap between short-term weather reports and long-term climate projections, offering insights from one week to six months ahead, with future expansion toward multi-year outlooks. Backed by NASA and the National Science Foundation, Planette's forecasts support sectors including energy, insurance, agriculture, finance, infrastructure, and public safety, providing critical lead time to reduce risk, protect assets, and build resilience. Learn more at planette.ai.

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