The report finds the Main Street businesses built to last until 2036 are small-format, quality-obsessed and run by equity-holding GMs

Key takeaways

• Homegrown, a revenue-based growth capital provider for multi-location brick-and-mortar brands, released the Brick & Mortar 2036 Report, an 11-trend forecast of which Main Street operators will still be growing in 2036.
• Homegrown's portfolio data shows a store's first full year carries its heaviest costs, with rent taking 17% to 35% of sales compared with 6% to 12% once the store matures.
• Inside one 19-location brand in Homegrown's portfolio, the best location nets a 36% margin while the weakest loses 7.5% on the same menu and systems.
• The first three trends are available today at joinhomegrown.com/perspectives, and the remaining eight will be released in the coming weeks.

Homegrown Financing, Inc. (“Homegrown”), a revenue-based growth capital provider for multi-location brick-and-mortar brands, today released the Brick & Mortar 2036 Report, an 11-trend forecast of what will decide which Main Street operators are still growing a decade from now. The report pairs Homegrown's proprietary portfolio data with research on the operators already proving each trend out, most of them brands with fewer than 100 locations.

The report starts from a hard year for the industry, with an estimated 8,171 restaurant locations closed across the U.S. and Canada in the first half of 2026, split almost evenly between chains and independents. In an industry where the average margin runs 3% to 5%, or roughly $1.60 kept on a $40 dinner check, 42% of restaurant operators reported entering 2026 unprofitable. The report reads this as a sorting of the market, where the operators who make it to 2036 will be the ones who adopt some combination of 11 trends that are already visible today.

"Every brick-and-mortar business is in a competition that keeps getting more complex, and the owners who stay in the game are the ones who stay dialed in to how it's changing," said Michael Davis, founder and CEO of Homegrown. "We work with brands for five to ten years on average, so how a business evolves over a decade matters to us as much as how it performs in the next twelve months. These trends are a look into how we see the future impacting the investment decisions we make today."

Findings in the report include:

• A store's first full year carries its heaviest costs. Across Homegrown's data sets, rent takes 17% to 35% of sales in a store's first full year, compared with 6% to 12% once it matures, and labor runs 41% to 56% compared with 23% to 30%, which is why buying a mature store can reduce a new operator's risk substantially.
• The average store says very little about a brand. Inside one 19-location brand in Homegrown's portfolio, running the same menu and systems, the best location nets a 36% margin on a 43% prime cost while the weakest loses 7.5% on a 66% prime cost, with the site, the manager and the store's age making the difference.
• Buying is becoming the way in. Restaurant resales fell 12% in the second quarter, but franchised restaurants' share of those sales rose from 28% in the first quarter of 2026 to 45% by June, more than double last year's average. A typical quick-service restaurant resold this year for about $115,000, compared with $300,000 to nearly $900,000 to build a new unit for a fast-growing young brand.
• Buildout economics decide deals. The average U.S. tenant improvement allowance sits near $43 per square foot, while taking a cold shell instead of a second-generation space can mean $50 to $90 per square foot in out-of-pocket cost, and in Homegrown's experience that gap is the number one reason deals between operators and property owners fall apart.

Looking ahead to 2036, the report expects brands with identical menus and sales to diverge by 300 to 500 basis points on prime cost based on their operating tools alone. It also sees top general managers at high-volume units earning packages above $250,000 with store-level profit participation, and membership tiers becoming standard for neighborhood cafes, studios, barbershops and retailers.

The 11 trends in the Brick & Mortar 2036 Report are:

1. Radical Obsession with Quality
2. Agents Are Necessary for Viability
3. GMs Become Localized Pro Athletes
4. Synthetic Equity & Ownership Pathways
5. Franchising Becomes the Default Entrepreneurial On-Ramp
6. Start Smaller, Scale Smarter, Go Faster
7. Co-Tenancy as a Core Design Principle
8. Run Your Own Hyperlocal Marketing
9. Tenant Improvement's Renaissance
10. Subscriptions, Membership Clubs & In-Store Automation
11. Revenue Shares, Royalties & Community Capital “Phase 2”

Homegrown is releasing the first three trends today, with the remaining eight following on its website and social channels. The full report will be available at joinhomegrown.com/perspectives.

About Homegrown

Homegrown Financing, Inc. (“Homegrown”) is the growth capital partner for America's proven multi-location brick-and-mortar brands, both independents and franchises. We provide bespoke revenue-based financing through two products: Expansion capital to fund new locations, buildouts and acquisitions, and Bridge advances that front tenant improvement dollars while property owners work through reimbursements. Every Homegrown deal closes without personal guarantees and without taking equity, structured around the four-wall economics of how independent operators actually grow. Our mission is to build the growth capital layer that brick-and-mortar entrepreneurs have always needed but never had: friendlier than the banks, faster than the SBA and less disruptive than selling equity. Visit www.joinhomegrown.com to learn more.

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Which Main Street operators will still be growing in 2036? Homegrown's new report forecasts the 11 trends that will decide it.