Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, functions as an integrated downstream energy company. Valued at $61.1 billion by market cap, the company refines, supplies, markets, and transports petroleum products.
Shares of refining giant have outperformed the broader market over the past year. MPC has gained 31.9% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 11.8%. In 2026, MPC stock is up 25%, surpassing the SPX’s marginal fall on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, MPC’s underperformance is apparent compared to the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 55.4% over the past year. However, the stock’s gains on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 18.8% returns over the same time frame.
On Feb. 3, MPC shares closed up more than 6% after reporting its Q4 results. Its adjusted EPS of $4.07 beat Wall Street expectations of $2.73. The company’s revenue stood at $33.4 billion, down marginally year over year.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect MPC’s EPS to grow 24.4% to $13.31 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion.
Among the 19 analysts covering MPC stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on eight “Strong Buy” ratings, three “Moderate Buys,” and eight “Holds.”
This configuration is less bullish than a month ago, with nine analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On Feb. 9, Citigroup Inc. (C) kept a “Neutral” rating on MPC and raised the price target to $210, implying a potential upside of 3.3% from current levels.
While MPC currently trades above its mean price target of $201.94, the Street-high price target of $225 suggests an upside potential of 10.7%.
On the date of publication, Neha Panjwani did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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