On September 28, 2022, Healthcare Triangle Inc (NASDAQ: HCTI) received a Buy rating with a price target of $2.00 in an analyst report by EF Hutton.
EF Hutton analyst Constantine Davides, CFA, said “We are reiterating our Buy rating on HCTI. We continue to like the risk-reward of shares here, as HCTI continues to scale its proprietary Platform offerings while expanding its Managed Services business.”
This is the second Buy rating report released by EF Hutton on HCTI in 2022. On March 14, 2022, Davides initiated coverage with a Buy rating on Healthcare Triangle and a price target of $4.00.
Here are the key points from the report:
We view the continued adoption of HCTI's Platform offerings as a key component of potential share appreciation (multiple expansion) and an improved financial profile (predictable/recurring revenue mix and long-term margin expansion). We believe that HCTI has approximately six Platform customers, up from four at the end of 1Q, and we would expect that total to expand steadily across the next several quarters. We are projecting $4.7 million in Platform revenue in 2022 (10% of revenue), growing to $8 million by 2024 (13% of revenue).
Along with the focus on Platform, we continue to expect HCTI to focus on the growth of this recurring revenue stream. We note that YTD Managed Services revenue growth has been negatively impacted by a change in the way HCTI reports partner pass-through revenue, which has had an optically negative impact on 2022 GAAP revenue with no impact on gross profit.
Cash and cash flow
A recent (July 2022) equity financing provided HCTI with $5.8M in net proceeds. Although HCTI has been opportunistically repurchasing its own shares, we would prefer that management allow cash to build on its balance sheet rather than deploy capital more aggressively toward repurchases, given the challenging macro backdrop. Free cash flow (FCF) was positive in 1Q and 2Q and we expect FCF generation to remain sound across the next several quarters.
Updating target and initiating 2024 estimates
Our target moves to $2.00 from $4.00 (2.3x 2023 revenue) given recent multiple compression in the space (our target multiple goes to 1.5x 2023 revenue) and other model adjustments (projected cash and share count). We are initiating our 2024 revenue estimate of $61.3M (+10%). HCTI recently traded at 0.3x our 2023 revenue estimate.
HCTI is capital-constrained and has above-average customer concentration risk; its largest customer generated 39% of 2Q revenue. The company’s CEO and CFO also serve as officers of another publicly traded company, SecureKloud Technologies, Inc., which owns 65% of HCTI’s common equity. HCTI has a relatively small float and is thinly traded.
I, Constantine Davides, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
EF Hutton, division of Benchmark Investments, LLC managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for Healthcare Triangle, Inc during the past 12 months.
EF Hutton, division of Benchmark Investments, LLC or its affiliates received compensation from Healthcare Triangle, Inc for investment banking services within the past twelve months, and will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report
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