AIG’s fourth-quarter results drew a positive market response, as management cited disciplined underwriting, improved investment income, and strong execution on portfolio repositioning. CEO Peter Zaffino highlighted that international commercial growth, favorable reinsurance renewals, and ongoing expense reductions helped offset softness in North America property lines. Management also pointed to gains from new business, especially in international markets, and emphasized the benefits of a multi-year strategy targeting efficiency and portfolio optimization.
Is now the time to buy AIG? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
AIG (AIG) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $6.95 billion vs analyst estimates of $6.92 billion (1.4% year-on-year growth, in line)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.96 vs analyst estimates of $1.90 (3% beat)
- Adjusted Operating Income: $1.41 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.57 billion (20.3% margin, 10.3% miss)
- Market Capitalization: $42 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From AIG’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Alex Scott (Barclays) asked about the sustainability of expense ratio improvements. CEO Peter Zaffino clarified that Q4 included final parent expense allocations and projected a lower, more stable expense ratio in 2026.
- Alex Scott (Barclays) also questioned the sources of premium growth for 2026. Zaffino explained growth will be split among organic initiatives, recent deals, reinsurance, and less quota share in high net worth portfolios.
- Meyer Shields (KBW) inquired about the additional margin in casualty lines. CFO Keith Walsh said AIG is maintaining conservative loss picks in casualty to cover macro uncertainties, with no signs of portfolio deterioration.
- Bob Huang (Morgan Stanley) probed the scope of AI orchestration and its impact. Zaffino described plans for AI agents to streamline workflows, reduce cycle times, and scale efficiencies across the organization in 2026.
- Elyse Greenspan (Wells Fargo) sought clarity on capital allocation and share repurchases. Walsh confirmed a baseline $1 billion repurchase in 2026, with additional buybacks funded by proceeds from Corbridge divestitures.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) the pace and profitability of the Everest portfolio conversion and associated retention rates, (2) evidence of expense ratio improvement as parent allocations phase out, and (3) the measurable impact of generative AI deployment on underwriting and claims productivity. We will also watch for further progress in capital deployment through additional divestitures and specialty investments.
AIG currently trades at $78.27, up from $75 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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