What Happened?
Shares of mortgage finance REIT Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) jumped 1.9% in the afternoon session after billionaire investor Bill Ackman published a pointed and bullish assessment of the mortgage finance giants on social media.
The social media post from the closely-watched Wall Street voice sent shares of both companies surging over 30%. In his remarks, Ackman described the two firms as “stupidly cheap,” and framed the investment as an asymmetric opportunity, where the potential upside significantly outweighs the downside risk. He further suggested the stocks could rise tenfold from their current levels, adding a sense of urgency that prompted an immediate and sharp rally in the shares.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $21.20, up 2% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Annaly Capital Management’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 3 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 6 months ago when the stock dropped 3.5% on the news that reports revealed a drop in consumer confidence amid mounting fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 in September, a larger-than-expected decline fueled by pessimism over inflation and the job market. This drop suggests consumers may cut back on borrowing and spending, directly impacting banks' profitability. Adding to the concerns, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson highlighted a cooling economy, with GDP growth slowing to 1.5% in the first half of 2025 due to weaker consumer spending. Compounding these issues is the looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown, as a deal on a spending plan remains elusive. A shutdown could further squeeze the economy and delay crucial economic data, increasing market uncertainty and prompting a cautious approach from investors.
Annaly Capital Management is down 7.4% since the beginning of the year, and at $21.20 per share, it is trading 13.1% below its 52-week high of $24.40 from January 2026. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Annaly Capital Management’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at only $607.65.
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