MOSCOW - The world is now confronting a profound and uncharted demographic transformation. More than two-thirds of the global population already lives in nations where birth rates are insufficient to replace the current population. This decline is occurring alongside a rapid aging of societies, with populations in many regions already shrinking. These critical issues were the focus of a lecture, "Uncharted Territories: Global Demographic Shifts and Their Meaning for Us," delivered by Professor Wang Feng, a leading sociologist from the University of California, Irvine. The talk was part of the January Expert Dialogues held at Moscow's National Centre RUSSIA.
Professor Wang's analysis contributed to a broader discussion on global megatrends led by senior Russian officials. He highlighted that the United Nations has dramatically revised its population forecast downward by one billion people in just seven years.
"Global life expectancy has surged by 25 years recently, which is the encouraging reason behind this downward revision," Professor Wang stated. "However, the other side of this success is a rapidly aging humanity and a corresponding plunge in fertility."
The global fertility rate has plummeted to an average of two children per woman, down from five just decades ago. Professor Wang pointed to East Asia as a stark example, where social and economic pressures are driving the change.
"In the 1980s, about 15% of women in East Asia remained unmarried. Today, that figure has doubled, reaching nearly half of all women in places like Taiwan," he explained. "High costs of living, educational pressures, and a rejection of persistent gender inequality are key factors. The core problem is that no government subsidies or policies have proven effective in reversing this trend."
The professor warned that economic and social consequences are intensifying, particularly for younger generations in countries such as South Korea and Japan, who face diminished prospects relative to their parents.
"This pressure is leading young people to delay or forgo having children because they feel they cannot afford them," Wang Feng noted. "This trend is poised to spread to China and beyond, demanding urgent attention."
He concluded that nearly every nation now grapples with population aging, necessitating swift and coherent policy responses from governments worldwide.
The January Expert Dialogues event in Moscow featured presentations on five key megatrends shaping global development, including this demographic challenge.
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