Hayward (HAYW): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q4 Earnings?

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HAYW Cover Image

Hayward has been treading water for the past six months, recording a small loss of 2.5% while holding steady at $14.84. The stock also fell short of the S&P 500’s 5.4% gain during that period.

Is there a buying opportunity in Hayward, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.

Why Is Hayward Not Exciting?

We're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons we avoid HAYW and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Disappoints

A company’s long-term sales performance can indicate its overall quality. Even a bad business can shine for one or two quarters, but a top-tier one grows for years. Regrettably, Hayward’s sales grew at a tepid 5.1% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years. This fell short of our benchmark for the industrials sector.

Hayward Quarterly Revenue

2. Projected Revenue Growth Is Slim

Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.

Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Hayward’s revenue to rise by 4.2%, a slight deceleration versus its 5.1% annualized growth for the past five years. This projection doesn't excite us and suggests its products and services will see some demand headwinds.

3. EPS Trending Down

Analyzing the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company's incremental sales were profitable – for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.

Hayward’s full-year EPS dropped 20.8% annually, over the last four years. We’ll keep a close eye on the company as diminishing earnings could imply changing secular trends and preferences.

Hayward Trailing 12-Month EPS (Non-GAAP)

Final Judgment

Hayward isn’t a terrible business, but it doesn’t pass our quality test. With its shares lagging the market recently, the stock trades at 17.3× forward P/E (or $14.84 per share). While this valuation is reasonable, we don’t really see a big opportunity at the moment. We're pretty confident there are superior stocks to buy right now. Let us point you toward the most dominant software business in the world.

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