Mortgage insurance provider Radian Group (NYSE: RDN) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, with sales falling 9.9% year on year to $300.5 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.16 per share was 6.8% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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“We delivered a strong year in 2025, driven by the consistent performance of our mortgage insurance business and the disciplined way we manage risk and capital. Just as importantly, we took meaningful steps to shape our company for the future – simplifying our focus and acquiring Inigo to expand our reach as a global multi-line specialty insurer,” said Radian’s Chief Executive Officer, Rick Thornberry.

Company Overview

Founded during the housing boom of 1977 and weathering multiple real estate cycles since, Radian Group (NYSE: RDN) provides mortgage insurance and real estate services, helping lenders manage risk and homebuyers achieve affordable homeownership.

Revenue Growth

Insurers earn revenue three ways. The core insurance business itself, often called underwriting and represented in the income statement as premiums earned, is one way. Investment income from investing the “float” (premiums collected upfront not yet paid out as claims) in assets such as fixed-income assets and equities is the second way. Fees from various sources such as policy administration, annuities, or other value-added services is the third. Radian Group’s demand was weak over the last five years as its revenue fell at a 1.8% annual rate. This was below our standards and is a sign of lacking business quality.

Long-term growth is the most important, but within financials, a half-decade historical view may miss recent interest rate changes and market returns. Radian Group’s revenue over the last two years was flat, sugggesting its demand was weak but stabilized after its initial drop. Note: Quarters not shown were determined to be outliers, impacted by outsized investment gains/losses that are not indicative of the recurring fundamentals of the business.

This quarter, Radian Group missed Wall Street’s estimates and reported a rather uninspiring 9.9% year-on-year revenue decline, generating $300.5 million of revenue.

Net premiums earned made up 75% of the company’s total revenue during the last five years, meaning insurance operations are Radian Group’s largest source of revenue.

While insurers generate revenue from multiple sources, investors view net premiums earned as the cornerstone - its direct link to core operations stands in sharp contrast to the unpredictability of investment returns and fees.

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Book Value Per Share (BVPS)

Insurers are balance sheet businesses, collecting premiums upfront and paying out claims over time. Premiums collected but not yet paid out, often referred to as the float, are invested and create an asset base supported by a liability structure. Book value per share (BVPS) captures this dynamic by measuring these assets (investment portfolio, cash, reinsurance recoverables) less liabilities (claim reserves, debt, future policy benefits). BVPS is essentially the residual value for shareholders.

We therefore consider BVPS very important to track for insurers and a metric that sheds light on business quality. While other (and more commonly known) per-share metrics like EPS can sometimes be lumpy due to reserve releases or one-time items and can be managed or skewed while still following accounting rules, BVPS reflects long-term capital growth and is harder to manipulate.

Radian Group’s BVPS grew at a solid 9.6% annual clip over the last five years. BVPS growth has also accelerated recently, growing by 10.9% annually over the last two years from $28.71 to $35.29 per share.

Key Takeaways from Radian Group’s Q4 Results

It was good to see Radian Group beat analysts’ EPS expectations this quarter. On the other hand, its revenue slightly missed. Zooming out, we think this was a mixed quarter. The stock remained flat at $32.30 immediately after reporting.

Big picture, is Radian Group a buy here and now? If you’re making that decision, you should consider the bigger picture of valuation, business qualities, as well as the latest earnings. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).