Mortgage insurance provider Radian Group (NYSE: RDN) fell short of the market’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, with sales falling 9.9% year on year to $300.5 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.13 per share was 4% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

Radian Group’s fourth quarter performance saw revenue fall short of Wall Street expectations, but non-GAAP earnings per share modestly exceeded consensus. Management attributed the quarter’s results to continued growth in its mortgage insurance portfolio, disciplined risk management, and operational cost control. CEO Richard Thornberry emphasized that the company’s “large, high-quality primary Mortgage Insurance portfolio grew 3% year-over-year to another all-time high,” while ongoing efforts to maintain strong persistency rates and positive credit trends supported profitability. The quarter also marked the completion of the Inigo acquisition, signaling a significant shift in the company’s strategic direction.

Looking ahead, management expects Radian’s transformation into a global multiline specialty insurer to drive revenue diversification and earnings growth. CEO Richard Thornberry highlighted that the Inigo integration is expected to “double our annual revenues, be accretive to EPS and returns, and provide greater strategic flexibility.” The company plans to focus on leveraging its mortgage insurance expertise alongside Inigo’s specialty insurance platform, with a continued emphasis on disciplined capital deployment, stable premium yields, and efficient expense management. Leadership noted that the divestiture of non-core businesses and further liquidity enhancements will be key areas of focus in the coming quarters.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed the quarter’s results to robust mortgage insurance portfolio growth, stable credit trends, and the closing of the Inigo acquisition, while also outlining leadership changes and progress on divesting non-core businesses.

• Mortgage insurance momentum: The insurance in force portfolio reached an all-time high, as new insurance written grew 6% year-over-year. Management credited the company’s proprietary data and analytics platform, RADAR Rates, for sourcing high-value loans and maintaining risk-adjusted returns.
• Stable credit performance: The company reported favorable cure rates, with 90% of defaults curing within one year. Management expects recent vintages to maintain strong embedded equity, contributing to low claim severity and supporting profitability.
• Inigo acquisition completed: Radian closed its acquisition of Inigo, a specialty insurer operating through Lloyd’s of London. Management emphasized that the deal was funded entirely with available liquidity and excess capital, with no new equity issued, and described the integration risk as “fairly low.”
• Leadership changes: The promotion of Steve Keleher and Meghan Bartholomew to co-heads of the Mortgage Insurance business, along with new appointments in finance, was intended to align the organization with its new strategic direction and ensure continuity as the company expands.
• Non-core business divestitures: Progress continued on the divestiture of Mortgage Conduit, Title, and Real Estate Services businesses, with completion expected by the third quarter of next year. Management noted that steady execution during the transition has preserved value and liquidity.

Drivers of Future Performance

Radian’s outlook centers on integrating Inigo, maintaining mortgage insurance profitability, and completing non-core divestitures to enable capital redeployment.

• Inigo integration and earnings accretion: Management expects the Inigo acquisition to drive significant earnings growth, estimating a mid-teens return on the $1.7 billion investment and projecting it will be accretive to EPS and return on equity through the cycle.
• Mortgage insurance portfolio stability: The company anticipates persistency rates and premium yields to remain stable, with ongoing use of proprietary analytics to target high-value segments and maintain favorable credit trends, minimizing losses.
• Capital allocation and liquidity: Radian plans to optimize excess capital generated from its core businesses and divestitures, with a focus on resuming share repurchases, repaying debt, and supporting further strategic investments as opportunities arise.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Going forward, the StockStory team will monitor (1) progress on the Inigo integration and evidence of earnings accretion, (2) the pace and completion of non-core business divestitures and resulting capital redeployment, and (3) trends in mortgage insurance persistency, credit quality, and premium yield stability. The timing and scale of resumed share repurchases and further capital management actions will also be important indicators.

Radian Group currently trades at $32.12, in line with $32.13 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).

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