Biotechnology company Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) reported revenue ahead of Wall Streets expectations in Q3 CY2025, but sales fell by 45.4% year on year to $1.02 billion. On the other hand, the company’s full-year revenue guidance of $1.8 billion at the midpoint came in 4.4% below analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP loss of $0.51 per share was 78.6% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy MRNA? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

StockStory’s Take

Moderna’s third quarter was shaped by sharply lower demand for COVID-19 vaccines, yet the company delivered results above Wall Street expectations for both revenue and earnings. Management attributed the outperformance to rigorous cost discipline, with CEO Stéphane Bancel noting a 34% reduction in combined cost of sales, R&D, and SG&A compared to last year. The company also cited strong market uptake of its new COVID vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, and the impact of ongoing productivity initiatives. CFO Jamey Mock highlighted that cost reductions came from both operational efficiencies in manufacturing and prioritization across the R&D pipeline.

Looking ahead, Moderna’s updated annual guidance reflects caution, as management expects persistent headwinds from declining COVID vaccination rates and the wind-down of certain large clinical trials. Management noted that future growth will depend on expanding its commercial portfolio, particularly through geographic expansion and new product launches in respiratory and oncology segments. CEO Stéphane Bancel stated, “Our commercial business will benefit from the full-year contribution from our strategic partnership in Canada, U.K., and Australia,” while CFO Jamey Mock reiterated the company’s focus on reaching cash breakeven by 2028 through a mix of revenue growth and further cost reductions.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management cited the combination of reduced COVID demand, operational cost improvements, and pipeline realignment as the key drivers of the quarter’s performance and evolving guidance.

• COVID vaccine portfolio transition: The new mNEXSPIKE vaccine rapidly captured a majority share of Moderna’s COVID vaccination volume, reflecting success in product positioning and adaptation to changes in clinical recommendations for higher-risk groups. Management noted that mNEXSPIKE now accounts for 55% of its COVID vaccination doses, with Spikevax maintaining a niche in pediatric populations.

• International manufacturing ramp-up: Strategic partnerships in Canada, the U.K., and Australia are beginning to provide incremental revenue, with the first made-in-Canada mRNA vaccines delivered this quarter. Management expects these partnerships to play a larger role in future quarters as local facilities become fully operational.

• Pipeline reprioritization and efficiency: Moderna made significant cuts to R&D spending, mainly by completing several large Phase III trials and discontinuing its congenital CMV vaccine program after failing to meet efficacy endpoints. Resources are being shifted to late-stage programs with clearer commercial prospects in oncology and rare diseases.

• Ongoing cost discipline: A multi-year efficiency program resulted in a substantial decrease in overall expenses, with operating costs reduced by $2.1 billion over the last four quarters compared to the prior year. Management emphasized ongoing efforts to further lower costs through improved supplier contracts and digital productivity tools.

• Mixed clinical trial outcomes: While positive Phase III data for the flu vaccine program and the flu/COVID combination candidate were highlighted, slow case accrual in the norovirus vaccine trial and the discontinuation of the CMV program tempered the overall pipeline momentum. Management remains focused on advancing the most promising assets to approval and market.

Drivers of Future Performance

Moderna’s forward outlook is driven by a continued shift away from pandemic-related products toward a diversified pipeline, with a focus on operational efficiency and new product launches.

• COVID vaccine demand decline: Management expects continued pressure on revenue from lower global COVID vaccination rates, particularly in the U.S., with guidance assuming a 20% to 40% decrease compared to last year. The company is closely monitoring vaccination uptake and market share trends for its updated products.

• Commercial expansion and new launches: Revenue growth in the coming quarters will rely on geographic expansion, especially through new manufacturing partnerships in Canada, the U.K., and Australia. Additionally, upcoming regulatory filings for the flu vaccine and the combination flu/COVID shot are expected to create new commercial opportunities.

• Cost structure optimization: Achieving cash breakeven by 2028 remains a core goal, with management targeting further reductions in GAAP and cash operating expenses. Efforts to streamline R&D, wind down large clinical trials, and focus resources on late-stage assets are expected to support margin improvement over time.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the progress and revenue contribution from new international manufacturing partnerships, (2) regulatory and commercial milestones for the flu and combination flu/COVID vaccines, and (3) further advancements or setbacks in late-stage oncology and rare disease trials. Execution on cost reduction plans and the pace of diversification beyond COVID vaccines will remain critical markers for assessing Moderna’s transition strategy.

Moderna currently trades at $24.32, up from $23.53 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

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