Aflac’s fourth quarter saw a positive market response despite missing Wall Street’s revenue and non-GAAP profit expectations, with management attributing performance to product launches and shifting sales dynamics across Japan and the U.S. The Japan business delivered a notable 15.7% sales increase driven by new cancer and medical products, while the U.S. segment benefitted from persistent premium growth and disciplined underwriting. CEO Daniel Amos highlighted that strong persistency and sales “offset the impact of reinsurance and policies reaching paid-up status.” Management noted higher group sales in the U.S. and an expanded distribution network in Japan as sources of resilience amid flat overall revenue.

Is now the time to buy AFL? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Aflac’s Q4 Earnings Call

• Wesley Carmichael (Wells Fargo): Asked about the risk of increased surrenders in Japan’s interest-sensitive savings products amid rising yields. CFO Max Broden indicated no material change in lapse rates but said the company closely monitors interest rate impacts.

• John Barnidge (Piper Sandler): Sought clarity on the sustainability of lower benefit ratios in Japan. Broden cited actuarial updates, product mix, and runoff of older policies as primary drivers of the expected reductions.

• Joel Hurwitz (Dowling & Partners): Inquired about U.S. sales trends by product. President Virgil Miller detailed strong growth in group products and dental, with individual voluntary benefits remaining flat, and emphasized continued investment in both channels.

• Suneet Kamath (Jefferies): Asked about the upward trend in the U.S. benefit ratio. Broden explained that increased endorsements and a higher mix of group business are expected to push the ratio higher in 2026.

• Taylor Scott (Barclays): Queried technology and AI adoption. Management explained that automation is primarily used for claims efficiency and agent support, with AI seen as an assistive—not a replacement—tool.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Looking forward, the StockStory team will be watching (1) whether recent product launches in Japan and U.S. continue to gain traction and drive new premium growth, (2) how expense and benefit ratios trend as group products scale and technology investments increase, and (3) the pace of expansion in digital distribution and agent recruitment. Progress on automation initiatives and the response to evolving interest rate environments will also be important indicators of execution.

Aflac currently trades at $115.91, up from $113.62 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).

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