What Happened?
A number of stocks fell in the afternoon session after WTI crude jumped 3% to above $105 per barrel and Brent surged 5% to over $114, following the UAE's interception of Iranian missiles and renewed concerns about the Strait of Hormuz.
Fuel is the single largest variable cost line for trucking, rail, and parcel operators, and the sharp move higher immediately compresses operating margins unless carriers can pass through fuel surcharges quickly which is harder in a softening freight environment.
Furthermore, with jet fuel reportedly trading near $4.56 per gallon, nearly double pre-war levels, and analysts warning of potential rationing in Asia and Europe, the entire global logistics chain faced both a cost shock and a routing problem.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.
Among others, the following stocks were impacted:
- Ground Transportation company XPO (NYSE: XPO) fell 7%. Is now the time to buy XPO? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Ground Transportation company Saia (NASDAQ: SAIA) fell 7.7%. Is now the time to buy Saia? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Ground Transportation company ArcBest (NASDAQ: ARCB) fell 6.6%. Is now the time to buy ArcBest? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Zooming In On Saia (SAIA)
Saia’s shares are very volatile and have had 25 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 18 days ago when the stock gained 6% on the news that Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan raised the firm's price target on the stock, while broader industry trends pointed to surging freight rates. The analyst increased the price target on Saia to $381 from $352 but maintained a Hold rating on the shares. This move was based on expectations that first-quarter earnings for the less-than-truckload sector would be slightly better than previously thought, even with slow volume growth.
Saia is up 20.1% since the beginning of the year, but at $404.92 per share, it is still trading 9.8% below its 52-week high of $448.82 from April 2026. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Saia’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,717.
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