3 Reasons to Sell CB and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

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Chubb trades at $322.50 and has moved in lockstep with the market. Its shares have returned 12.2% over the last six months while the S&P 500 has gained 7.9%.

Is now the time to buy Chubb, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? See what our analysts have to say in our full research report, it’s free.

Why Is Chubb Not Exciting?

We're cautious about Chubb. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than CB and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Net Premiums Earned Point to Soft Demand

When insurers sell policies, they protect themselves from extremely large losses or an outsized accumulation of losses with reinsurance (insurance for insurance companies). Net premiums earned are therefore gross premiums less what’s ceded to reinsurers as a risk mitigation and transfer strategy.

Chubb’s net premiums earned has grown at a 7.5% annualized rate over the last two years, slightly worse than the broader insurance industry and in line with its total revenue.

Chubb Trailing 12-Month Net Premiums Earned

2. Projected Revenue Growth Is Slim

Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.

Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Chubb’s revenue to rise by 2.3%, a deceleration versus its 8% annualized growth for the past two years. This projection doesn't excite us and indicates its products and services will face some demand challenges.

3. Recent EPS Growth Below Our Standards

While long-term earnings trends give us the big picture, we also track EPS over a shorter period because it can provide insight into an emerging theme or development for the business.

Chubb’s EPS grew at an unimpressive 15.9% compounded annual growth rate over the last two years. On the bright side, this performance was higher than its 8% annualized revenue growth and tells us the company became more profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded.

Chubb Trailing 12-Month EPS (Non-GAAP)

Final Judgment

Chubb’s business quality ultimately falls short of our standards. That said, the stock currently trades at 1.5× forward P/B (or $322.50 per share). Investors with a higher risk tolerance might like the company, but we don’t really see a big opportunity at the moment. We're fairly confident there are better investments elsewhere. Let us point you toward one of our all-time favorite software stocks.

Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Chubb

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