Rivian’s Q4 Earnings Call: Our Top 5 Analyst Questions

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Rivian's fourth quarter was marked by a significant year-over-year sales decline, but the market responded positively due to the company’s progress in cost reduction and operational efficiency. Management credited improvements in average sales price and lower production costs for driving the first full year of positive gross profit, despite lower sales volumes. CEO RJ Scaringe highlighted the R1S’s performance as the best-selling premium electric SUV in several key states and pointed to advances in the company’s software and autonomy platforms as additional contributors to quarterly results. CFO Claire McDonough emphasized that continued operational discipline and material cost reductions led to an over $1.3 billion year-over-year improvement in gross profit.

Is now the time to buy RIVN? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

Rivian (RIVN) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:

  • Revenue: $1.29 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.28 billion (25.8% year-on-year decline, 0.7% beat)
  • Adjusted EPS: -$0.53 vs analyst estimates of -$0.67 (21% beat)
  • Adjusted EBITDA: -$465 million (-36.2% margin, 67.9% year-on-year decline)
  • EBITDA guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is -$1.95 billion at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of -$1.82 billion
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin: -36.2%
  • Sales Volumes were down 31.3% year on year
  • Market Capitalization: $20.04 billion

While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Rivian’s Q4 Earnings Call

  • Emmanuel Rosner (Wolfe Research) asked about production cadence and R2 contribution. CFO Claire McDonough explained R2 deliveries would be limited early in the year, ramping in the second half, with a focus on exiting the year at a higher production rate.
  • Dan Levy (Barclays) pressed on R2 demand and customer willingness to take early models before the new autonomy hardware. CEO RJ Scaringe expressed confidence in demand, noting the backlog and that most customers prioritize availability over waiting for later hardware.
  • Ben Kallo (Baird) inquired about the Volkswagen partnership’s impact on revenue and capital. Scaringe and McDonough described robust testing progress and outlined anticipated capital infusions from the joint venture, with software business growth expected to continue.
  • George Gianarikas (CG) questioned production bottlenecks and the ability to meet higher demand. Scaringe highlighted supply chain management as a key constraint and detailed the phased approach to adding production shifts and ramping output.
  • Mark Delaney (Goldman Sachs) asked about cost reductions per vehicle and expectations for R2 unit economics. McDonough attributed improvements to material cost declines and operational efficiencies, and expects further benefits from joint sourcing and manufacturing scale.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

As we look to the coming quarters, our team will closely monitor (1) the pace and reliability of the R2 production ramp, (2) the sustained growth trajectory of the software and services segment—particularly with Volkswagen, and (3) the company’s ability to manage costs and working capital during heightened investment. Execution on autonomy and AI feature rollouts will also serve as important indicators of future differentiation.

Rivian currently trades at $16.16, up from $14 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).

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