The First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) has been a great performer. And it has also been a terrible performer. Welcome to investing in industries within the technology sector in 2026.
You can see the daily chart here. Very “rich” on a PPO basis, but that does not always mean this exchange-traded fund (ETF) is toast. It could just be warming up. However, the point of this article is more about what happens to these tech stocks and ETFs so often, which creates a problem. Not for traders, but investors.
They simply move too quickly. In the case of CIBR, 10% higher in a flash. That leaves it less than 10% from its former high. That implies that return is still quite possible, but the risk is now elevated.
The weekly chart is similar, except that the PPO is still early-stage. Translation: CIBR will be volatile, as it usually is. But there could be a bigger move coming for the patient. In addition, any time I see a 50-week moving average (green line on chart below) that is newly positive, I take note. Why? Think about what 50 weeks is. Round up a bit, and that’s a full year. That is often less of a trade and more of a sustainable decision made by the stock market.
I’m including the ROAR Score for CIBR here, and I’m going to make a special note to come back to this one. Because, as you can see, it was an excellent buy signal. I primarily use ROAR as a portfolio construction tool, combining multiple securities to identify the strongest and weakest of the group at any point in time.
However, this is a great example of how, as technicians, we are not trying to “pick the bottom.” We are trying to figure out when potential turns into strength. Thus, the green (60) level implies lower-than-normal risk, but not a “gimme” after that move. CIBR’s ROAR Score was 80 about 10% ago.
Why Another Run Is Possible for CIBR
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a double-edged sword for the industry. While threat actors are using AI to increase the scale of attacks, defenders are integrating AI agents into security operations. This digital warfront is driving interest in the industry, spending, and underpinning the stocks.
Global spending on cybersecurity products is projected to exceed $520 billion in 2026. This is no longer just an IT line item. It is a strategic business priority.
Still, there are plenty of risks here, and some of them are structural. CIBR is top-heavy, with nearly 60% of assets concentrated in its top-10 holdings. Any earnings miss from the heavyweights can drag the entire ETF down, regardless of the broader industry trend.
And as this table shows, it has come so far already, on a long-term basis. More than 70% the past three years. And the $10 billion in assets reflects a potential put option underneath these stocks, since that’s a lot of capital devoted to owning a relatively small number of market leaders.
It could be said that CIBR’s risks mimic those of the broad stock market right now. Concentration at the top, high expectations to match the high current growth, and an economy that hasn’t pulled back yet, despite many reasons to do just that.
Still, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio hovering around 28x, the sector is priced for growth. Any delay in the expected ROI from AI security investments could lead to a rapid valuation reset.
This is a great proxy for the times we live in. Just be careful chasing it.
Rob Isbitts created the ROAR Score, based on his 40+ years of technical analysis experience. ROAR helps DIY investors manage risk and create their own portfolios. For Rob's written research, check out ETFYourself.com.
On the date of publication, Rob Isbitts did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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