Match’s fourth quarter results were well received by the market, with management attributing the positive momentum to targeted product improvements and early signs of ecosystem healing at Tinder. CEO Spencer Rascoff highlighted the company’s focus on user outcomes, noting that increases in engagement metrics—especially sparks, which measure meaningful conversations—reflected progress in retaining and reactivating users. Management pointed to the successful rollout of features like DoubleDate and strengthened trust and safety through FaceCheck as key contributors to improving user experience, particularly among Gen Z and female users.
Is now the time to buy MTCH? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Match Group (MTCH) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $878 million vs analyst estimates of $871.6 million (2.1% year-on-year growth, 0.7% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.06 vs analyst estimates of $1.02 (3.7% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $369.8 million vs analyst estimates of $352.1 million (42.1% margin, 5% beat)
- Revenue Guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $855 million at the midpoint, roughly in line with what analysts were expecting
- EBITDA guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $317.5 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $298.5 million
- Operating Margin: 32.4%, up from 26% in the same quarter last year
- Payers: 13.84 million, down 768,000 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $7.58 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Match Group’s Q4 Earnings Call
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Jason Helfstein (Oppenheimer): Asked about early learnings from Project Aurora and the connection between new registrations, MAU, and sparks. CEO Spencer Rascoff explained that bottom-of-funnel engagement improvements, like sparks, are showing the earliest gains, with top-of-funnel metrics such as new registrations starting to recover as reconsideration increases.
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Cory Carpenter (JPMorgan): Inquired about engagement improvements in 15 countries and the reasons for lighter-than-expected user experience headwinds. Rascoff noted that recommendation algorithm improvements, DoubleDate, FaceCheck, and targeted marketing were key drivers, and that the team has become more effective at minimizing negative revenue impact from new features.
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Shweta Khajuria (Wolfe Research): Requested details on measuring relevance for women and the lag from engagement metrics to payer growth. Rascoff pointed to DoubleDate and improved female retention as evidence, while stating that improving MAU trends should lead to better payer metrics over 2026.
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Dan Salmon (New Street Research): Asked about Hinge leadership transition and the new portfolio framework’s impact on M&A and incubation. Rascoff confirmed a seamless leadership change at Hinge and explained that the new brand segmentation informs both new product incubation and acquisition strategy.
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Nathaniel Feather (Morgan Stanley): Questioned the sources of new registrations and initial results from the Chemistry feature. Rascoff cited a mix of marketing, organic social buzz, and feature-driven referrals, and described Chemistry as an AI-powered solution to swipe fatigue with more applications planned.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) whether Tinder’s product changes lead to sustained MAU and payer stabilization, (2) Hinge’s ability to maintain strong international momentum with its new features and market launches, and (3) progress in mitigating revenue headwinds in emerging and Asia-focused brands. The impact of alternative payment strategies and marketing spend efficiency will also be closely watched.
Match Group currently trades at $32.62, up from $28.90 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
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